Browsing by Subject "Arctic"

This thesis analyses the development of Danish foreign and security policy towards the Arctic ever since the end of the Second World War up until today. It draws primarily on Denmark’s relation to the United States, having been Denmark’s main ally for the last 75 years on all security related matters - but especially since the end of the Cold War. Both Denmark and the US are considered Arctic coastal states, with Denmark accessing the Arctic ocean through its sovereign claim over Greenland, and the US through the state of Alaska. The thesis supports other scholarly studies that argue that a ‘new Cold War’ has been taking place in the years following the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in 2016 between the US, China and Russia, with potentially grave ramifications for Arctic regional security, given its growing importance as a region for resource extraction and commercial passage through the Northern Sea Route. For Denmark, this new Cold War threatens its sovereign claim over Greenland – a crucial geostrategic location for a potential Arctic militarization - being challenged as a small nation by the great power competitions accelerating in the Arctic. The thesis divides the last 75 years into three categorized eras: 1) The Cold War (1945-1991); 2) The post-Cold War era (1991-2017); 3) The ‘new Cold War’ as a developing era (2017 - ; denoted in the thesis), and analyses for each era the fundamentals of Denmark – US relations, first providing a more general overview of their political relations as security partners on non-Arctic related matters, in order to then draw parallels to the development of Denmark – US relations in the Arctic and their roles as state actors in shaping the geopolitical climate of the region. As I show, a lot can be learned from the Cold War to understand what is and may happen in the Arctic in the new Cold War. The thesis makes use of foreign policy analysis, as well as two variations of discourse analysis – poststructuralist discourse analysis and critical discourse analysis – as tools to engage with the empirical data available and answer the thesis’s main research questions: what is the perceived effect of the Trump administration's policy to the position of Denmark in the Arctic? The question is answered on the basis of two main theoretical frameworks: Securitization Theory and Region-Building Theory. These frameworks build the necessary foundation which along with the mentioned methodologies can provide a holistic overview and perspective on the matter with scientific validity. The thesis ends by discussing what can be expected in the near future, based on the knowledge acquired and the answers provided to the research question. A new administration led by president elect Joe Biden took over the White House on January 20st, and with it many new questions are yet to be answered, regarding the future of Denmark – US relations, the future of Arctic governance and the course of the new Cold War. I ponder on what options Denmark might have that could guarantee its security while also maintaining its sovereignty over Greenland – one option being a potential turn towards the EU as its new main security partner. Yet doing so would mean breaking a long-lasting relationship with the US while standing up to the world’s biggest economic and military superpower.

There has been a major decreasing trend in the amount of sea ice in the Arctic since the 1990s. The Arctic amplification (AA) warms the Arctic climate as a result of the global warming, strengthened by the ice albedo feedback loop. The ice albedo feedback loop is caused by melting of snow and ice surfaces. Melting of snow and ice causes changes to the surface albedo, which is a measure of the amount of incident solar radiation that is reflected. Melting snow and ice surface types and revealed open water or terrain have significantly lower albedo than the original snow and ice surfaces. Therefore more radiation is absorbed, which has a warming effect. CLARA-A3 dataset is analyzed in this thesis. Surface albedo (SAL) and top of atmosphere (ToA) albedo values are compared. Data from June and July of the years 2012 and 2014 are analyzed. The objective is to check the consistency of these data records. The surface albedo values are also modelled with the Simplified Model for Atmospheric Correction (SMAC) to further validate the data. The relationship between SAL and ToA is also studied. This is achieved by analysing snow and ice optical properties, interaction of solar radiation with Earth’s atmosphere and the effect of illumination and viewing geometry. The results of data analysis indicate consistency between the observed values for SAL and ToA albedo differences within the observed period. The results are also in line with predictions made based on previous studies on the seasonal trends in the Arctic albedo. Furthermore results modelled with SMAC show dependency with the observed results and thereby validate the data. However data from June 2012 and July 2014 are unfortunately contaminated, which means that there are less usable data and therefore of reduced accuracy. Data analysis conducted for a larger SAL and ToA dataset would be needed to provide a basis for studying the decadal and seasonal trend of the Arctic SAL and ToA albedo difference. The whole melting season beginning in March and ending in September is important to study to better understand seasonal variability and trends as well as decadal trends in the Arctic.

Macrozooplankton is an understudied size class of plankton in the Arctic, but even though species composition is similar around the Svalbard archipelago, the relative composition can act as a proxy for climate change. This study investigated if the fjords around Svalbard are similar in species composition and if any differences could be explained. 11 fjords were sampled with a focus on common and indicator species in terms of abundance, relative composition and length distribution. I found low presence of T.libellula and high abundances of T.abyssorum and T.inermis. T.abyssorum was the only species whos abundance was significantly correlated to water mass (Atlantic water), but T.libellula, T.abyssorum, T.inermis, T.longicaudata and A.digitale all showed significant differences in length distribution. This study provides further understanding of species composition in the different high Arctic fjords around Svalbard.

Russia’s energy security is considered to rest on hydrocarbon exports, as the country’s economy and political regime depends on revenue generated in energy trade. Today, Russia faces a problem, as interests toward climate change mitigation and renewable energy have increased globally. Particularly the EU, Russia’s primary gas trade partner, seeks to reduce fossil fuel consumption due to its climate policy targets and concerns over energy security. Via the Yamal LNG project, Russia begun to diversify its markets toward East Asia in 2017. The project is expected to spur energy infrastructure development in the Arctic region, as it ships liquefied natural gas (LNG) along the Northern Sea Route. This study finds out how the stakeholders of the Yamal LNG project consider it to connect with the energy security of Russia, to which climate change mitigation poses a potential threat. Since securitization of energy is the result of a social process where political actors contest over the meanings of energy, the study also looks at whose interests the Yamal LNG project actually secures as “energy security”, and how that concept becomes projected as a general national interest, instead of having energy transition among the top objectives of energy policy. Neo-Gramscian analytical approach and frame analysis are used to deliver results from a data consisting of 11 research interviews and 40 archival sources. The stakeholders make sense of Yamal LNG’s relation to energy security and energy transition through four frames, which reflect distinct interest groups. The stakeholders appeal on others by utilizing the frames discursively, as they strategically contest over the meanings of energy. Ultimately, a hegemonic group consisting of the Russian state, JSC Yamal LNG shareholders, industrial organizations, and fossil energy lobbies determines the meanings of Yamal LNG’s production as general interests. Subordinate groups, including environmental NGOs and local indigenous residents, consent as they face combinations of discursive, organizational and material power. With the concession of others, the hegemonic group is able to project a “reality” that presents natural gas production as compatible with energy transition and climate change mitigation as an inferior interest to energy security. The Yamal LNG case shows that incumbent fossil energy regimes can effectively counter attempts to direct energy policy on low-carbon paths by pleading to security, which is a topic that research often neglects.

Global warming affects permafrost in the Arctic regions, where melting organic carbon storages will increasingly contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases. Little is known about tundra soil microbial communities, but Acidobacteria and viruses seem to have important roles there. Here, for the first time, we isolated five Acidobacteria infecting viruses from Kilpisjärvi tundra soils using host strains previously isolated from the same area. Three viruses were isolated on Edaphobacter sp. X5P2, one on Edaphobacter sp. M8UP27, and one on Granulicella sp. X4BP1. The viruses had circular double-stranded DNA genomes 63,196–308,711 bp in length and 51–58% GC content. From 108 to 348 putative ORFs were predicted, 54–72% of which were sequences unique to each virus. Annotations indicated that all five phages most likely have tailed virions. The diversity of viruses present in the studied soils was estimated with the metagenome analysis. Only 0.1% (627) of all assembled metagenomic contigs were phage-positive. The gene-sharing network analysis showed approximately genus-level clustering between the virus isolates and a few metagenomic viral contigs, but overall, all (except one) viral contigs clustered only with each other, not with any known viruses from the NCBI database. No taxonomical assignments could be done for the metagenomic viral contigs, highlighting overall undersampling of soil viruses. Further detailed studies on virus-host interactions are needed to understand the impact of viruses on host abundance and metabolism in Arctic soils, as well as the microbial input into biogeochemical cycles.

Planning process for the Arctic Railway was initiated by the Ministry of Transport and Communications in 2017 and lasted until early 2019. The proposed railway line would cut through the homeland of the indigenous Sámi, which received harsh criticism from the Sámi Parliament for its adverse effects on the traditional Sámi culture and livelihood, both protected by the Constitution of Finland. In this thesis the claims of these two actors are analysed using the Justification theory and Justification analysis to gain insight into the underlying justifications that were used to either oppose or support the Arctic Railway. The results will also illuminate how the MTC’s use of justifications resulted in the constitutional rights of the indigenous Sámi being disregarded during the planning process. At the end of this thesis the reader should have a greater understanding of the Arctic Railway’s planning process, the main arguments and justifications of the two key actors, and how they were used to either resist or support the railway’s construction.

A warming trend of annual average surface temperatures since pre-industrial times has been observed globally. High-arctic area of Svalbard, Norway is undergoing amplified change of annual average temperatures when compared to the global average. Decline of glaciers in western Svalbard has been ongoing for several decades, and in the recent past, rapid biological successions have taken place. These changes have likely had effect on regional scale carbon dynamics at Svalbard’s moss tundra areas. Possibly indicating onset of paludification process of these areas. However, palaeoecological studies from the area are scarce, and the response of high-latitude moss tundra areas to past or ongoing climate change, are still not fully understood. This thesis aimed to bring forward information of changes in recent organic matter and carbon accumulation rates at Svalbard, Norway. Soil profiles were collected from four moss tundra sites, located on coastal areas and fjords descending towards Isfjorden, on the western side of Spitsbergen island. Radiocarbon (14C) and lead (210Pb) dating methods with novel age-depth modelling and soil property analyses, were used to reconstruct recent organic matter and carbon accumulation histories from 1900 AD to 2018 AD. Accumulation histories were supported by meteorological measurements from the area. In addition, annual maximum value Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices for 1985 AD till 2018 AD period were produced, to study vegetation succession in the recent past. Lastly, possibility to predict spatiotemporal variation of soil carbon accumulation with satellite derived vegetation indices was assessed. Development from predominantly mineral soils to organic soils was distinguishable within multiple soil profiles, pointing to potential paludification. Recent apparent carbon accumulation rates showed an increasing trend. Supporting meteorological data and literature suggest that regional abiotic and biotic factors in synergy with weather and climate are contributing to this observed trend. Vegetation indices pointed to major changes in vegetation composition and productivity. However, investigation of relationship between recent carbon accumulation rates and vegetation indices did not produce reliable results. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of carbon soil-atmosphere fluxes presently imposes large challenges for such modelling. To alleviate this problem, efforts for more efficient synergetic use of field sampling and remote sensing -based material should be undertaken, to improve modelling results.

Sea-ice dynamics is becoming increasingly essential for the modelling warming climate as the extent and thickness of the ice cover are decreasing along with increasing drift speeds and mechanical weakening. The description of the sea-ice dynamics involves an enormous variety of spatial and temporal scales from meters to the scale of the Arctic Basin and from seconds to years in the geophysical approaches. The complex coupled spatio-temporal scaling laws prohibit the commonly utilized procedures for scale linkage of ice mechanics. Currently, deformation scaling presents one of the principal open questions in sea ice dynamics for which the thesis aims to provide observational analysis. The high-resolution ship-radar imagery gathered during the MOSAiC expedition from October 2019 to September 2020 for which deformation component rates were calculated to generate a seasonal deformation time series. Current research of deformation scaling commonly relies on satellite imagery and drift buoys for which the spatial and temporal resolutions often tend to be considerably lower than for the ship-radar data. The formerly observed dominant deformation mode of shear and the strong spatial correlation of divergence and shear in the Arctic sea ice were confirmed with no signs of seasonal variation. The temporally averaged deformation variations were found to coincide with satellite derived deformation events rather poorly. A strong length scale dependence of deformation was confirmed in the ship-radar data. The spatial scaling law exponents were found to show unexpectedly high values with the behaviour of both spatial and temporal scaling law exponents disobeying the previously observed large-scale characteristics. The seasonal variation of both scaling law exponents were found to exhibit the commonly observed trends following the progression of total deformation rate. The obtained results showed unexpected values and behaviour for the deformation scaling law exponents, which was suggested to be due to the technical faults in the ship-radar data. The faults were often spatially local and lasted merely for a single time step leading to a possible increase in the localization and intermittency of the deformation rates. Additionally, the new ice conditions of the Arctic Ocean and drift route along the Transpolar Drift were suggested as a possible physical source of the unexpected results. Further studies with different methodologies were suggested for the verification and possible the dismissal of the unexpected results.

During the Cold War, the Arctic became a stage for the superpowers’ rivalry. The more ballistical armament was developed further, the more the Arctic armament increased. In the 1980s, the Arctic region was a region where the Cold War’s escalation was a real fear. Simultaneously the environmental questions started to concern more and more. Furthermore, although international agreements to protect nature had been negotiated and bilateral ones were being accelerated, there was no organisation for the Arctic dealing region as a whole. This lack of cooperation encountered with détente, the US and the Soviet Union’s leaders converged with rhetoric about restrictions on armaments. When Gorbachev gave a speech on October 1987 in Murmansk and longed for further cooperation in the Arctic region, a situation arose, which enabled the opening of cooperation negotiations. Eventually, Finland was the first to seize the moment, and this led to Finland’s initiative. The initiative aimed to arrange a Conference on the Protection of the Environment in Finland. This master’s thesis examines Finland’s Arctic diplomacy from September 1986 to October 1989, from The Reykjavík Summit to when the first meeting of Arctic issues with eight Arctic states was kept. More precisely, this thesis research how Finland was performing Arctic diplomacy during the period and if there were a change to Finland’s line after the Gorbachev’s speech. Hence, the thesis examines what type of reactions and consequences Gorbachev’s Murmansk speech affected in Finland’s foreign policy. Moreover, this thesis is interested in who was conducting nascent cooperation in the Arctic Region. The primary data used in this thesis are Finland’s Foreign Minister’s archives documents. The study shows that Finland’s Arctic diplomacy was at first in 1986, observative and reactional. However, after Gorbachev’s speech in Murmansk, Finland took the lead and worked actively to start cooperation. In this role, Finland needed to act as a balancer between the Arctic countries’ boundary conditions. Especially the US was hesitating and by this stretched Finland’s negotiator skills. Eventually, Finland achieved in arranging a consultative meeting in Finland in September 1989. This meeting became to be the first of two preparative meetings before the actual ministerial conference. Notably, Finland gained the leading force and was mainly conducting cooperation during the years examined. Nevertheless, the Gorbachev’s speech had a high impact on the momentum, but, significantly, Finland was the one who succeeded seize the moment.