Browsing by Author "Gorbacheva, Elena"

This thesis aims to solve the puzzle of why fraudulent federal elections of 2016-2018 caused no similar protest wave against unfair elections as the previous electoral cycle did. I approached this puzzle with case-study and process-tracing methods, which helped me to investigate while seemingly similar conditions did not result in same outcomes. I applied the theories of Relative Deprivation and Political opportunity, and findings from the previous research on electoral revolutions to assess which factors and conditions in the Russian Federation determined the no-protest phenomenon. After the mass protests of 2011-2012, the authorities introduced a number of measures that, on the one hand, increased their confidence in the electoral victories of the incumbents, and on the other hand made engaging in protests, especially political ones, cost more. Among those measures were new electoral laws and changes to electoral system, tightening control over media, repressions, attacks on NGOs, and other actions. And yet, as I have concluded, the decisive facts why no mass protest wave followed the federal elections of 2016 and 2018 was due to two facts: ‘rally-‘round-the-flag’ phenomenon, which managed to cancel out the possible mobilising effects of the worsening economic situation; and making electoral cycle 2016-2018 seem more fair and just then the one in 2011-2012. Partially this was achieved by reducing the malpractice, partially by relying more on administrative resource, and partially by manipulating public opinion on the election conduct.