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Modeling Customer Engagement with churn and upgrade prediction

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Title: Modeling Customer Engagement with churn and upgrade prediction
Author(s): Lampinen, Sebastian
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Faculty of Science
Degree program: Master's Programme in Data Science
Specialisation: General track
Language: English
Acceptance year: 2022
Modeling customer engagement assists a business in identifying the high risk and high potential customers. A way to define high risk and high potential customers in a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) business is to define them as customers with high potential to churn or upgrade. Identifying the high risk and high potential customers in time can help the business retain and grow revenue. This thesis uses churn and upgrade prediction classifiers to define a customer engagement score for a SaaS business. The classifiers used and compared in the research were logistic regression, random forest and XGBoost. The classifiers were trained using data from the case-company containing customer data such as user count and feature usage. To tackle class imbalance, the models were also trained with oversampled training data. The hyperparameters of each classifier were optimised using grid search. After training the models, performance of the classifiers on a test data was evaluated. In the end, the XGBoost classifiers outperformed the other classifiers in churn prediction. In predicting customer upgrades, the results were more mixed. Feature importances were also calculated, and the results showed that the importances differ for churn and upgrade prediction.
Keyword(s): customer engagement customer engagement score churn churn prediction machine learning

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