Browsing by Author "Huhtamäki, Olli Ilmari"

The thesis studies the economic policy of the United States from the first oil crisis of October 1973 to the 1980 elections via the perspective of Keynesian economic theorem. The main objective of the thesis is to analyze the perceived failure of Keynesianism during stagflation through practical policy and evaluate the policy connection to the economic theory paradigm shift that occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s. This is done by reviewing primarily the fiscal policies of the Ford and Carter administrations coupled with an analysis of the policy recommendations made by the contemporary congressional Joint Economic Committees. The thesis aims to add a historically minded policy analysis into the mix when explaining the fall of Keynesianism and see how well it elucidates this on its own. In primary material the thesis relies on various documents produced by the Councils of Economic Advisors and Joint Economic Committees during the previously mentioned time period. In particular the annually or biannually formed economic policy publications and statements related to them are under scrutiny since by revealing the policy directions and proposals one can examine the wider economic theory context at play. In addition the primary material is complemented by using a wide-range of previous literature and contemporary newspaper articles. Methodologically the study employs directed qualitative content analysis as a research method which carefully takes into consideration the chosen contextual theory – Keynesianism – when analyzing the material. Furthermore, an adaption of Douglass C. North’s theory on economic change is applied to the subject in order to create a more comprehendible framework to examine the change in economic thinking taking place. The analysis of U.S. economic policy through the theoretical lenses of Keynes finds that the theory was badly miscomprehended and practiced already in the late 1960s which continued for the entire 1970s causing increasingly significant reputational damage to it. The study concludes that a lack of belief among the Ford and Carter administrations towards Keynesianism and the difficult politico-economic circumstances lead to economic policies that cannot be classified as Keynesian. Thus the results stand in opposition to the notion that the theory failed through trial and error during stagflation and indicate that intellectual preference towards neoclassical economics began to impact policy increasingly since the Ford administration. The study recommends that future research focuses more on linking economic policies and theories to their historical and political context. A further recommendation is made to increase the study of empirical policy analysis when explaining the fall of Keynesianism.