Browsing by Author "Jäppinen, Heikki"

The aviation industry has been through tough times in recent years. The industry has experienced several crises and it has also undergone a significant structural change. Still, despite all this, air transportation has grown enormously. The turbulences currently experienced by the air travel industry make it very hard to prognosticate, although there is a real need to anticipate the future. The aim of this thesis is to gain as broad an understanding of the future of the industry as possible, and to determine which global factors are in play. I want to outline four future scenarios that describe the future demands for Helsinki-Vantaa airport. The scenarios need to be based on a broad vision of the development of the factors affecting the industry. I have set three separate goals for my thesis: 1. Create as broad an analysis as possible of the current status of Helsinki-Vantaa Airport 2. At the same time piece together the global factors and foreseeable changes influencing the future of the world, Europe and Finland, and especially Helsinki-Vantaa. 3. Formulate coherent scenarios of what Helsinki-Vantaa Airport and its operational environment might look like in 2030. The most important factors in this study are issues dealing with energy, environment, economy, technology and values. Many special issues related to air transportation industry were also studied such as airline regulation, emissions, fuel predictions and rail transportation. Based on all these factors and their assumed future developments and combining this information with current state of the industry, scenarios were developed. The four different scenarios in this study are 'Continuous climb', 'Localizer established', 'Caution wake turbulence' and 'Spin'. I would like to show that the future is not set in stone, and that it is shaped by decisions and actions (based on relevant information). The scenarios in my thesis are not meant to be precise descriptions of the future in 2030. The future will most likely be a mix of the outlined scenarios, and only parts of them will actually materialize. My intention is not to make accurate predictions. It is to help to introduce new ways of thinking and give examples of how to utilize the outlined scenarios. My thesis would be ideally used in creating long term strategies. In addition, my thesis aims to offer an outsider's view on how Helsinki-Vantaa can be better integrated into the world and how its strengths can be further refined, while also giving advice on how Helsinki-Vantaa can avoid pitfalls and threats and remedy existing weaknesses.