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Browsing by study line "General track"

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  • Jämsä, Pentti (2021)
    The purpose of the thesis is to explore the link between labour markets and transportation accessibility. Accessibility has been estimated with logsum and travel times of public and private transportation. Logsum as a concept has been used in the transportation system estimation, all though all in all logsum as a measure of accessibility is not as established as travel times. This way the overview of the effects of accessibility to employment is thorough. I also evaluate how impact assessment of transportation is done historically and how wider economic impacts are considered in the framework. Cost-benefit analysis is widely used, but the framework should be improved on how to include wider economic impacts. The methods section goes through how transportation system estimation is done. The used data in the estimation is collected from three dependencies. These are the interview-based traveling habits from Helsingin Seudun Liikenne, Statistics Finland metropolitan regional employment statistics and travel times of public and private transportation from Helsinki Region Travel Time Matrix. In the results I go through the empirical model. Travel time, logsum and employment are all viewed as an elasticity measure. The results of the model are reasonable and in line with the previous literature, but the coefficient of determination ends up quite low. This means that the results still need confirmation, either through better data or better estimation model. My results can be viewed as a preliminary result on the link between employment and accessibility.
  • Kuokka, Karri (2021)
    Hinnoittelualgoritmien käyttö on yleistynyt viimeisen vuosikymmenien aikana. Tähän on vaikuttanut erityisesti sähköisten markkinapaikkojen eli verkkokauppojen suosion kasvu. Lisäksi algoritmeihin liittyvä teknologia on kehittynyt ja hinnoittelualgoritmeihin liittyviä palveluita on yhä helpommin yritysten saatavilla. Tässä tutkielmassa tarkastellaan hinnoittelupäätöksissä käytettävien algoritmien vaikutuksia markkinakäyttäytymiseen, missä useat yritykset koordinoivat toimiaan saadakseen kilpailullista markkinatilannetta korkeampia voittoja. Tällainen yritysten välinen kilpailun vastainen yhteistyö, eli kolluusio, on usein kuluttajien ja kilpailun kannalta haitallista. Siksi myös hinnoittelualgoritmien käytön vaikutuksia kolluusion on syytä tarkastella. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella hinnoittelualgoritmien vaikutuksia erityisesti hiljaiseen kolluusioon. Tarkastelun kohteena on myös se, kykenevätkö tekoälyyn perustuvat algoritmit kolluusion autonomisesti eli täysin ilman ihmisten ohjausta. Tutkielman kirjallisuuskatsauksessa syvennytään tekoälyyn perustuviin algoritmeihin ja hiljaiseen kolluusioon teoriatasolla. Hinnoittelualgoritmien vaikutuksia hiljaiseen kolluusion on vaikea tutkia empiirisin menetelmin, koska hiljaista kolluusiota voi olla vaikeaa havaita markkinoilta ja yritykset harvoin paljastavat hinnoittelussaan käyttämiään algoritmeja. Tästä syystä tutkielman toisena tutkimusmenetelmänä on kokeellinen tietokonesimulaatio, jonka avulla tarkastellaan hinnoittelualgoritmien vaikutuksia hiljaiseen kolluusion. Simulaation avulla pyritään kokeellisesti selvittämään, kykenevätkö tekoälyyn perustuvat hinnoittelualgoritmit kolluusioon autonomisesti. Tutkielman tulosten mukaan hinnoittelualgoritmien käytöllä voi olla vaikutuksia hiljaiseen kolluusioon. Hinnoittelualgoritmien käyttö voi muuttaa markkinarakenteita vaikuttaen hiljaiseen kolluusioon. Vaikutukset markkinarakenteisiin ovat kuitenkin hieman epäselvät ja vaikutukset hiljaiseen kolluusioon voivat olla joko lisääviä tai vähentäviä. Lisäksi hinnoittelualgoritmit voivat toimia myös välillisesti hiljaisen kolluusion fasilitaattorina. Tutkielman tuloksista erityisen mielenkiintoinen on tekoälyyn perustuvien hinnoittelualgoritmien kyky oppia kolluusio autonomisesti. Tätä tulosta tuki aiempaan kirjallisuuteen perustuva kirjallisuuskatsaus sekä tässä tutkielmassa toteutettu tietokonesimulaatio. Yleistyvä hinnoittelualgoritmien käyttö ja niiden kehittyminen voivat aiheuttaa täysin uudenlaisia ongelmia kilpailun tehokkuuden turvaamisessa ja sääntelyssä. Kokeelliseen tutkimukseen perustuvien tuloksien mukaan tekoälyyn perustuvat algoritmit näyttäisivät kykenevän autonomisesti kolluusioon. Jatkossa tutkimusta hinnoittelualgoritmien vaikutuksista kolluusioon olisi syytä laajentaa. Haasteeksi voi kuitenkin muodostua se, miten tutkimusta voidaan toteuttaa sellaisessa taloudellisessa ympäristössä, joka vastaa riittävän tarkasti todellista markkinatilannetta.
  • Kanervo, Atte Jonatan (2021)
    This thesis investigates the tax base and allocation choices in international corporate income tax architecture and provides an evaluation of the effects of the choices made in three different systems: the current system, residual profit allocation, and OECD Pillar One. International corporate income tax design has a significant effect on the functioning of the international economy and on the welfare of individuals. Thus, making the correct design choices is extremely important. This thesis argues that the international corporate income tax system should be designed following certain important principles of taxation: 1) fairness, 2) economic efficiency, 3) robustness to avoidance, 4) administrative ease, and 5) incentive compatibility. The different systems are then introduced in turn and evaluated against these criteria. The thesis finds that the current system suffers from certain conceptual weaknesses that leave significant room for improvement with regards to the set criteria. It is further argued that a reform is required for the continued functioning of the international system. Such a reform could be introduced in the form of residual profit allocation. OECD Pillar One proposal involves elements of residual profit allocation, but in comparing the different systems with each other, this thesis argues that the OECD proposal is too narrow in scope to gain the full benefits of a residual profit allocation system.
  • Unkuri, Henri (2024)
    T\"am\"a maisterintutkielma tutkii Suomen sis\"all\"a esiintyvi\"a alueellisia eroja ty\"omarkkinoiden kohtaannossa vuosina 2011-2022. Kohtaannolla tarkoitetaan t\"ass\"a tutkielmassa ty\"ott\"omien ty\"onhakijoiden ja avointen ty\"opaikkojen/vakanssien kohtaamista ty\"omarkkinoilla. Kohtaanto heikkenee silloin, kun avointen ty\"opaikkojen ja ty\"ott\"omien ty\"onhakijoiden m\"a\"ar\"at kasvavat samanaikaisesti. T\"all\"oin sanotaan usein, ett\"a ty\"omarkkinoilla siirryt\"a\"an ylemm\"alle Beveridge-k\"ayr\"alle. Vertailen alueellisia eroja pitk\"alti ty\"omarkkinoiden etsint\"a- ja kohtaantoteorian valossa. Teorian mukaan ty\"omarkkinoilla uusia ty\"opaikkoja ei synny kitkatta, vaan ty\"omarkkinoiden osapuoliin (ty\"onantajat ja -hakijat) kohdistuu kustannuksia heid\"an osallistuessaan rekrytointiin/ty\"onhakuun. Lis\"aksi niin ty\"onantajilla kuin -hakijoillakin on tietyt rajahy\"odyt, joita alemmalla hy\"odyll\"a he eiv\"at suostu sopimukseen. T\"alloin ty\"omarkkinoilla kohtaavat vain sellaiset parit, jotka t\"aytt\"av\"at toistensa vaatimukset. T\"at\"a prosessia mallintaa kohtaantofunktio \(M=M(U,V)\), jossa M on syntyneiden ty\"osopimusten m\"a\"ar\"a, U on ty\"ott\"omien m\"a\"ar\"a ja V on vakanssien m\"a\"ar\"a. Tarkastelen vuosien 2011-2022 kehityst\"a ja alueellisia eroja k\"aytt\"aen sek\"a kohtaantofunktiota ett\"a Beveridge-k\"ayr\"a\"a eli vakanssien ja ty\"ott\"omyyden suhdetta. Kohtaantofunktion estimointi osoittaa sen tehokkuuden laskeneen maanlaajuisesti, joskin v\"akiluvultaan suuremmissa maakunnissa havaitaan parempaa menestyst\"a pienempiin verrattuna. My\"os Beveridge-k\"ayrien empiirinen analyysi osoittaa kohtaanto-ongelman olevan yhteinen, vaikkakin eri maakunnissa eri suuruinen. Lis\"aksi tutkin, kuinka julkiseen ty\"onv\"alitykseen ilmoitetut avoimet ty\"opaikat ovat muuttuneet vuosina 2011-2022, ja kuinka niiden ominaisuudet ovat vaikuttaneet t\"all\"a ajalla niiden t\"ayttymiseen alueittain ja kansallisesti. Havaitsen suurten yritysten osuuden julkisessa ty\"onv\"alityksess\"a kasvaneen merkitt\"av\"asti ja osa-aikaisen ty\"on osuuden nousseen kokop\"aiv\"aisten ty\"opaikkojen kustannuksella. T\"all\"akin aineistolla lasketut aluekohtaiset kiinte\"at vaikutukset viittaavat kohtaannon heikentymisen olevan yhteinen ilmi\"o, jonka suhteen v\"akiluvultaan suuremmat alueet kuitenkin p\"arj\"a\"av\"at keskim\"a\"arin hieman pienempi\"a verrokkejaan paremmin.
  • Nevanlinna, Kimmo (2022)
    Tiivistelmä Tiedekunta: Valtiotieteellinen tiedekunta Koulutusohjelma: Taloustieteen maisteriohjelma Opintosuunta: Taloustieteen yleinen opintosuunta Tekijä: Kimmo Nevanlinna Työn nimi: Älysopimusalustojen hinnoittelun tehokkuus Työn laji: Maisterintutkielma Kuukausi ja vuosi: 11/2022 Sivumäärä: 48 Avainsanat: Lohkoketju, satunnaiskävely, kryptovaluutta, älysopimus Ohjaaja tai ohjaajat: Jani Luoto Säilytyspaikka: Helsingin yliopiston kirjasto Muita tietoja: Tiivistelmä: Maisterintutkielma tutkii kolmen älysopimuksiin erikoistuneen kryptovaluutan Ethereumin, Cosmoksen ja Tezosksen hinnan satunnaiskävelyn hypoteesia. Kryptovaluutat ja lohkoketjut ovat nousseet julkiseen keskusteluun viime vuosina, kun niiden hinnat ovat vaihdelleet villisti ja niiden hintojen muutoksia seurataan nykyään suurissa kansainvälisissä ja kotimaisissa talousuutisissa, mutta ymmärrys hintojen muutosten takana on vajavaista. Kryptovaluutoista tunnetuin Bitcoin sai alkunsa vuonna 2009, mutta viimeisen viiden vuoden aikana älysopimukset ovat nousseet myös julkiseen keskusteluun. Kryptovaluuttoja pidetään kuitenkin yleisessä keskustelussa keskenään samanlaisina eikä niiden eroja ymmärretä tarpeeksi hyvin. Kiinnostukseni älysopimuksiin ja niiden mahdollisuuksiin syttyi vuonna 2018 ja se kiinnostus sai minut tutkimaan asiaa taloustieteen näkökulmasta maisterintutkielman verran. Tämä maisterintutkielma selittää mitä älysopimukset ovat ja miten niiden käyttö lisää sen kryptovaluutan kysyntää, jonka päällä älysopimus suoritetaan. Tutkielmassa käydään myös läpi mitä lohkoketjut ovat. Empiirisessä osuudessa käytetään metodina autokorrelaation tutkimista tuottoaikasarjasta. Tehokkaassa hinnan muodostuksessa ei pitäisi löytyä autokorrelaatiota. Autokorrelaatio mitataan Ljung-Boxin menetelmällä päivittäisistä tuotoista 1.1.2019-31.6.2021. Toisena menetelmänä käytetään yksikköjuuren estimointia. Tämä tutkitaan Dick-Fullerin testillä. Yksikköjuuri löydetään kahdesta suuremmasta kryptovaluutasta Ethereumista ja Cosmoksesta, mutta ei pienemmästä Tezosksesta. Lopputuloksena todetaan, että isommat kryptovaluutat vaikuttavat olevan jotakuinkin tehokkaat satunnaiskävelyn osalta, mutta kaikki kolme kryptovaluuttojen tuottoaikasarjaa sisältävät autokorrelaatiota.
  • Kurppa, Sara (2021)
    Työvoiman riittävyys on yksi tulevaisuuden suurimmista poliittisista kysymyksistä länsimaissa. Tähän pyritään löytämään ratkaisuja muun muassa pidentämällä nykyisten työntekijöiden työuria, kuitenkaan lisäämättä työkyvyttömyyseläkkeiden aiheuttamia kustannuksia. Yhtenä mahdollisena ratkaisuna pidetään ammatillisen kuntoutuksen tarjoamia työhön paluu mahdollisuuksia työkokeilun tai uudelleen kouluttautumisen avulla terveydentilalle sopivampaan ammattiin. Tutkimuksen alussa käydään tarkemmin läpi ammatillista kuntoutusta, sen prosessia, kohderyhmää sekä mahdollisia kuntoutuskeinoja. Tavoitteena on selvittää henkilötasoisten muuttujien vaikutusta ammatilliseen kuntoutukseen osallistumiseen. Lisäksi on tarkoitus selvittää, onko osallistumista mahdollista ennustaa jo hakemusvaiheessa. Aiemmat tutkimukset ovat osoittaneet iän, sukupuolen, koulutustausta ja sairauspoissaolojen lukumäärän olevan merkittäviä muuttujia tätä tutkittaessa. Tutkimuksen aineistona on yhden eläkelaitoksen vuosina 2016-2019 antamat ammatillisen kuntoutuksen ennakkopäätökset. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytetään khiin-neliötestiä, logistista regressiota sekä satunnaismetsää. Logistisen regression tuloksien mukaan tärkeimpiä ammatilliseen kuntoutukseen osallistumiseen vaikuttavia muuttujia ovat henkilön sukupuoli, kuntoutusrahan määrä, tietyt ammatit sekä vuosiansioiden määrä viimeisen viiden vuoden aikana ennen kuntoutusoikeuspäätöksen saamista. Ennustemalliksi luodun satunnaismetsän tulosten perusteella ammatilliseen kuntoutukseen osallistumista on mahdollista ennustaa. Positiivisen luokan ennustustarkkuus on selvästi parempi kuin negatiivisen luokan. Khiin-neliötestin, logistisen regression ja satunnaismetsän tuloksissa on kuitenkin myös toisistaan eroavia tuloksia.
  • Peltonen, Henri (2024)
    Banking crises have been found to cause significant fiscal and real costs for the economy. For this reason, macroprudential policymakers have developed various analytical models for predicting new banking crises ahead of time. With this information policymakers can undertake targeted countermeasures to reduce the negative impacts. In the prediction exercise binary regression models (especially logit) have been the main analytical tool for long. However, due to the complex dynamics and rare occurrences, accurate crisis prediction remains a difficult task for these models. In line with the recent developments in technology and artificial intelligence, scholars have started investigating the possibilities of using machine learning methods in banking crisis prediction. Despite the promise of more flexible distributional assumptions and enhanced modeling of non-linear relationships, the early results on predictive performance have been mixed. One explanation for this could be the large variety of models and empirical setups that different authors have used. As a result, it remains unclear whether the results are driven by changes in the underlying empirical setups, or the superiority of the machine learning models themselves. To investigate this problem, this thesis collects out-of-sample prediction results from eleven banking crisis papers published between 2017 and 2023. After implementing a normalization procedure to enhance comparability between the papers, the results are pooled for analysis to gain insights into which machine learning models perform the best. Additional robustness checks are also carried out to investigate the stability of the results. This thesis makes two main contributions to the literature. The first one is finding systematic differences in predictive performance between machine learning models. Neural network, random forest and boosted/bagged tree models have on average delivered the best predictive performance in comparison to logit models. In contrast, k-nearest-neighbors, decision tree and support vector machine models consistently underperform the logit benchmarks. The second contribution is creating novel connections between the banking crisis and machine learning literatures. The empirical results obtained in this thesis are contrasted and found to be aligned with the machine learning literature. In addition, a critical review of the practical implications resulting from the use of machine learning is conducted. Issues with interpretability, modeling and class-imbalances are highlighted.
  • Pöyhönen, Heikki (2024)
    Aiemmin on todistettu, että rekrytoinneissa esiintyy syrjintää. Syrjinnän kohteita ovat yleisesti olleet naiset, ulkomaalaistaustaiset tai muut vähemmistöt. Rekrytointisyrjinnän vähentämiseksi yksi kehitetty menetelmä on anonyymi rekrytointi. Anonyymissa rekrytoinnissa rekrytoijalta piilotetaan hakijoita yksilöiviä tietoja, kuten nimi, ikä ja sukupuoli. Anonyymia rekrytointia käytetään myös Metsähallituksessa. Tutkielma käsittelee Metsähallituksen toteutusta anonyymista rekrytoinnista vastaamalla kahteen tutkimuskysymykseen: Miten anonyymi rekrytointi on vaikuttanut eri ryhmien palkkaamistodennäköisyyksiin ja organisaation monimuotoisuuteen? Millaisia kokemuksia ja oletuksia rekrytoinneilla esihenkilöillä on anonyymista rekrytoinnista? Tutkielman aineisto koostuu rekrytointien tiedoista sekä rekrytoinneille esihenkilöille lähetetyn kyselyn vastauksista. Tutkielman analyysiin käytetty rekrytointiaineisto sisälsi 251 palkatun hakijan tietoja, kuten iän ja sukupuolen. Palkatuista 17 oli palkattu anonyymia rekrytointia hyödyntäen. Tutkielman aineiston toinen osa koostui kyselyn vastauksista. Kysely lähetettiin 88 esihenkilölle, joista 26 vastasi kyselyyn. Vastanneista henkilöistä yhdeksän oli käyttänyt vähintään kerran anonyymia rekrytointia Metsähallituksessa. Lähetetty kysely oli lyhyt, sisältäen 10 kysymystä. Kysymykset oli aseteltu hieman eri tavoin sen mukaan, oliko vastaaja käyttänyt anonyymia rekrytointia vai ei. Rekrytointiaineiston osalta tutkielmassa käytetään tuloksien saamiseksi lineaarista regressiomallia usealla muuttujalla. Käytetty malli tutki eri muuttujien, kuten anonyymin lomakkeen, hakijan iän ja sukupuolen vaikutuksia hakijan palkkaamistodennäköisyyteen. Palkkaamistodennäköisyys jokaisen tehtävän osalta tutkielmassa laskettiin jakamalla tehtävään palkattujen lukumäärä hakijoiden kokonaismäärällä, olettaen jokaisen hakijan olleen pätevä hakemaansa tehtävään. Kyselyn vastauksia tutkielmassa käsiteltiin aineistolähtöisesti laadullista päättelyä hyödyntäen. Esimerkiksi avoimia vastauksia teemoiteltiin tutkielmassa eri teemoihin ja tätä kautta esiteltiin teemakohtaisesti esiin nousseita asioita vastauksista. Monivalintakysymysten osalta vastauksien jakaumia tarkasteltiin kysymyskohtaisesti sekä vertailemalla vastauksia anonyymia rekrytointia käyttäneiden ja ei-käyttäneiden esihenkilöiden välillä. Rekrytointiaineistoa ja regressiomallia hyödyntämällä tutkielmassa havaitaan anonyymin rekrytoinnin parantaneen naisten palkkaamistodennäköisyyttä jopa 30 %-yksikköä. Kun taas havaittu vaikutus yli 50-vuotiaiden palkkaamistodennäköisyyteen on negatiivinen ja suuruudeltaan noin -9,5 %-yksikköä. Muiden tutkittujen muuttujien osalta tutkielmassa ei löydetty merkittäviä tuloksia anonyymin rekrytoinnin vaikutuksesta palkkaamistodennäköisyyksiin. Kyselyn vastauksista tutkielmassa huomataan, ettei vastaajat kokeneet anonyymin rekrytoinnin vaikuttaneen rekrytointiprosessiin tai hakijoiden yhdenvertaiseen kohteluun. Kyselyyn perustuen Metsähallituksen henkilöstö on avoin kokeilemaan anonyymia rekrytointia. Henkilöstö korosti menetelmään siirtymisessä organisaatiosta tulevan kannustamisen sekä menetelmään kouluttamisen tärkeyttä. Kyselyn vastauksien avulla tutkielma havaitsee myös pieniä ongelmia anonyymin rekrytoinnin toteutuksessa. Selkein havaittu ongelma oli se, että hakijoiden taustatiedot paljastuivat anonyymissa rekrytoinnissa helposti rekrytoijalle erinäisistä syistä. Tutkielma osoitti, että anonyymilla rekrytoinnilla on merkittäviä vaikutuksia tiettyjen ryhmien palkkaamistodennäköisyyksiin Metsähallituksessa sekä organisaation henkilöstön olevan avoimia kokeilemaan anonyymia rekrytointia. Tutkielmassa havaitaan Metsähallituksen anonyymin rekrytoinnin toteutuksessa ongelmia, ja menetelmän teorian mukaisen käytön takaamiseksi olisi tärkeää pohtia mitä tietoja hakijoista piilotetaan rekrytoinnin alussa. Piilotettavia tietoja miettiessä on tärkeää huomioida implisiittiset tiedot, joita rekrytoija voi saada esimerkiksi hakijan valmistumisvuosista.
  • Österman, Esa-Petter (2024)
    This thesis studies the extent to which a state of the art Bayesian model, Bayesian predictive synthesis, can improve the nowcasting of Finnish GDP. GDP is the most looked after and thus the most nowcasted economic variable. The true values for GDP are published with a significant delay and revised later on, which highlights the necessity of well-performing forecasting models. In this thesis I replicate an existing study on Bayesian predictive synthesis in Finnish setting and then extend the framework to study forecast accuracy for GDP change. In the first part of the thesis, the theoretical background of the BPS model framework is studied in detail after which the application follows. In the empirical study six projection models are formed as dynamic linear models which are then synthesized with the novel Bayesian predictive synthesis. These results are benchmarked against the existing Bayesian VAR model that is used by Bank of Finland. In the empirical application I find that the Bayesian predictive synthesis is unable to improve the projection models' forecast accuracy. I also find that the synthesis for GDP levels performs better than the synthesis for GDP change. In the literature the synthesis model is mainly used to project nonstationary series. Results from this study support the assumption that BPS framework applies better for nonstationary projections. Also, the model is found to be very sensitive to the set of projections and parameter selection, which highlights the need for expert opinion in choosing the right models to synthesize for each application. Based on this research, this stand-alone BPS framework is not suitable to replace existing models for GDP nowcasting. For future research, it is recommended that BPS model is used to synthesize the already existing nowcasting models for improving these models.
  • Jokivuori, Jessica (2023)
    Taxation is a critical tool for development, as well-designed tax systems can generate greater revenues to fund public goods and investments that drive productivity. However, lower-income countries often raise only a small percentage of their gross domestic product (GDP) in taxes compared to higher-income countries. The gap in revenue is particularly striking for property taxes. This thesis begins with a literature review on taxation in developing countries and property taxation in general, emphasizing the challenges of property taxation in developing countries. It then provides relevant background information on Kenya, discussing inequality, general taxation, and property taxation. Using survey data from the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2015-2016, the thesis then investigates the distribution of property value and income among Kenyan households. It then explores the potential revenue and distributional effects of two property taxation models while also considering potential revenue loss from taxing households with insufficient income or savings. The trends between household income and property value indicate that higher annual incomes correlate with higher property values and vice versa. However, low-income individuals also owned higher-value properties, leading to liquidity problems. A 2% linear property tax rate model revealed a heavy tax burden on lower-income households and an overall revenue potential of 2.38% of total survey income or 0.94% of 2016 GDP. The study observed significant decreases in revenue potential when adjusting revenue to account for the ability to pay. This research also modeled a property tax rate payable only upon reaching a specific income threshold to address liquidity problems. In this model, the tax burden shifted to higher-income households with an overall potential tax revenue of 1.91% of total survey income or 0.76% of GDP. In conclusion, the observed trends, such as the high prevalence of inability to pay, relatively low revenue potential, and the administrative effort required for property taxation, suggest that reforming property taxation may not be the most practical approach for increasing revenue in Kenya.
  • Seppälä, Akseli (2024)
    Asuntojen hintojen tekijät ovat niin asuntosijoittajan kuin omistusasujankin kannalta mielenkiintoisia. Tässä työssä esittelen empiirisen mallin jolla pyrin selvittämään paljonko eri tekijät vaikuttavat vanhojen omistusasuntojen neliöhintoihin. Erityisen huomion kohteena on lyhyet sekä pitkät markkinakorot. Työssä käytetty regressiomalli on yleistetty pienimmän neliösumman paneeliregressiomalli (GLS) kaupunki- ja aikakohtaisilla kiinteillä vaikutuksilla, heteroskedastisuuskorjauksella sekä autoregressiivisellä, liikkuvan keskiarvon ARMA(1,1)-komponentilla. Mallilla tuloksista saadaan lähes heteroskedastisuus- ja autokorrelaatiorobusteja. Lisäksi rakennetaan asuntosijoituksen ja 10:n vuoden valtionlainan tuottojen erotusta mallintava Ylituotto-muuttuja. Malli ennustaa 1%-yksikön kasvun lyhyissä koroissa olevan yhteydessä - 458,3€ ja pitkissä koroissa -41,5€:n muutokseen neliöhinnoissa. Väkiluvun havaitaan kummassakin mallissa kasvattavan asuntojen hintoja kaupungissa yhden sentin jokaista uutta asukasta kohden. 1%:n ylituotolla taas havaitaan hieman alle 100€:n käänteinen yhteys asuntojen neliöhintoihin. Tulokset ovat teorian ja kirjallisuuden perusteella odotettuja mutta mallien tulokset eroavat toisistaan paljon. Tarkastelujakson pidentäminen parantaisi tuloksia.
  • Tossavainen, Tuuli (2021)
    Asymmetric information in insurance markets is the result of policyholders, the buyers of insurance, having more information about their own risk types and preferences than the insurer. Informational asymmetry between the insurer and policyholders can lead to non-optimal insurance prices and quantities which reduce market efficiency. While the presence of asymmetric information has been widely studied in several insurance markets, it has not been empirically studied in the Finnish automobile insurance market before. This thesis aims to fill this gap in literature. The Finnish automobile insurance market consists of two types of insurance. Motor liability insurance is required by law from all vehicles used for driving in traffic. Also, voluntary automobile insurance can be acquired in addition to the mandatory motor liability insurance. In this thesis, the presence of asymmetric information is studied by comparing the occurrence of motor liability insurance claims, conditioned with the pricing variables used by the insurer, between policyholders who only have a motor liability insurance policy and policyholders with an additional automobile insurance policy. The data set used in this thesis is from a single Finnish insurance company. The data set is from the year 2019 and it contains nearly 105,000 motor liability insurance policies. The data include all variables observed by the insurer. Several regression specifications and the widely used positive correlation test are used in this thesis to study the correlation between insurance coverage and motor liability insurance claims. The results of this thesis suggest that signs of asymmetric information are not present at aggregate level in the Finnish automobile insurance market in question. However, different subgroups of policyholders show signs of asymmetric information: After controlling for the pricing variables, policyholders with an automobile insurance policy with the largest coverage show a positive correlation between buying automobile insurance and motor liability insurance claims whereas policyholders with an automobile insurance policy with the third largest coverage show a negative coverage-claims correlation. However, the results from different regression specifications regarding different automobile insurance coverages were not unanimous and thus the results are left ambiguous. In addition, new policyholders considered as experienced drivers show a negative correlation between motor liability insurance claims and having automobile insurance coverage. On the contrary, policyholders considered as experienced drivers with 1–2 years of company experience do not show signs of asymmetric information. The result suggests that the insurer learns from its repeat customers as signs of informational asymmetry disappear over time. Moreover, policyholders considered as unexperienced drivers do not show signs of asymmetric information regardless of the length of their customership in the firm. The results are in line with previous research.
  • Sjöholm, Tobias (2023)
    Personalized pricing as a pricing strategy has become possible as a result of technological advancement. Personalized pricing uses data to determine prices that differ from uniform pricing and as a result, welfare effects change. This master thesis uses a two period oligopoly model to analyze welfare effects of personalized pricing and then applies modifications to the model to account for EU Regulations. The model finds that regulation helps mitigate negative welfare effects by reducing the amount of inefficient switching and a price ceiling helps to reduce the appropriation effect for a consumer with a high willingness to pay. A case study is used to illustrate a use case for an oligopolistic market to bring real-world context to the theoretical model. The research question is important, because it increases awareness about the effects of regulation on personalized pricing in the European union internal market.
  • Liukkonen-Yalcintas, Melissa (2024)
    Opportunistic insurance fraud has been given little attention in academic studies, even though it is estimated to account for the majority of insurance fraud. This global phenomenon distorts insurance markets, leading to higher premium prices for honest consumers. The motivation for this thesis is to gain deeper understanding of opportunistic insurance fraud, its causes, and to provide possible solutions to tackle it. This thesis provides a comprehensive literature review, combined with two theoretical models to study opportunistic insurance fraud. The first model introduced is the costly state verification model with two different auditing strategies. This model is used to find optimal insurance contracts under asymmetry. The second model is the fraud triangle with three elements: motivation, opportunity, and rationalization. In sum, the fraud triangle model explains opportunistic insurance fraud. The results from this analysis support the concept of a rational, utility maximizing consumer, whose main motivation for fraud is money. Opportunity is provided by the industry itself due to inadequate measures of detection and prevention. In addition, societal norms indicate a strong acceptance of fraudulent behavior, which is often seen as a victimless crime.
  • Tiililä, Nea (2019)
    The regulatory framework for financial regulation has developed much in the Europe after the financial crisis. The use of borrower based macroprudential instruments as regulatory tools has become popular among the European Economic Area -countries. Already 21 out of 31 EEA-countries have at least one borrower based macroprudential instrument in use. The most commonly used borrower based instruments are Loan to Value (LTV) limit, Loan to Income (LTI) limit, Debt to Income (DTI) limit, Loan Service to Income (LSTI) limit, Debt Service to Income (DSTI) limit, amortisation requirement and maturity limit. As these instruments are only recently introduced as regulatory tools in Europe, their effectiveness and transmission channels are still under discussion. The aim of this master's thesis is to contribute to the ongoing discussion of the effectiveness of the instruments. This thesis provides a broad literature review in order to understand the transmission of each of the borrower based instruments and to explore previous findings of the impacts of the instruments. Further, an empirical analysis is formed by using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model in order to study whether borrower based macroprudential instruments have any effect on housing market stability and real economy in the Europe. The data that is used to answer this question consists of growth rates of mortgage stock, house price index, construction index, household consumption and GDP. According to the literature review, the borrower based macroprudential instruments function through four different transmission channels. These are the credit demand channel, expectations channel, resilience channel and anti-default channel. The empirical analysis provides evidence that tightening the borrower based instruments reduces mortgage growth. House prices react negatively to a policy shock in the short run but positively in the long run. Construction reacts negatively to a policy shock. Household consumption on its behalf responds to a policy shock positively in the short run but negatively in the long run. Finally, GDP responds to a policy shock negatively. However, the result concerning construction growth is the only one which is statistically significant in a 95% confidence level and all the other results lack statistical significance. Overall, the empirical results of this thesis provide slight evidence that regulating borrower based macroprudential instruments restrain the growth of mortgage stock, which for its part should enhance the stability of housing markets in Europe. Further, the impact on economic growth is likely negative. However, the results are not statistically significant in a 95% significance level. The difficulties in fitting the model and the lack of significance may implicate that the chosen model might not be the most suitable one for studying the efficiency of borrower based macroprudential instruments.
  • Pedro, Gomes Santos (2022)
    The prevailing volatility of the price/spread related to catastrophe risk around this newly innovative type of instrument, called CAT bond, gave light to this literature. Contrarily to normal type of insurance coverage risks (such as cars, houses, etc...) risk associated to natural and human catastrophes is more unpredictable and costly for (re)insurance companies. Insurance and reinsurance companies found a way to finance this expensive risk by shifting it to investors through Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS), more precisely and successfully, CAT bonds. By cross-checking data and information from multitude of sources, I investigated which are the main determinants capable to influence the price, spread or coupon of a catastrophe bond on the primary market for those instruments. This paper gathers data of 284 catastrophe bonds issued in the market between January 2013 and October 2021 provided by Artemis deal directory. My research contains an introduction part on those innovative type of bonds, an overview on previous research regarding the question and their results, and some empirical data on the main goal of this work, which is defining what variables influence the price of the CAT bond in the primary market. OLS regressions techniques with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors are mainly used based on multifactor based models in order to identify the main determinants of the price. The work of Alexander Braun will be the main inspiration for this work, I will apply a couple of same techniques on my work, according to the data available and Stata limitations. The outcome of the larger model including the whole set of variables and crossed variables shows that the expected loss is the major influencers of the catastrophe risk prices for both the in-sample and out-of-sample estimation and across diversified subsamples and models. As per the conclusion from previous researchers, the expected loss variable has shown to impact positively the price of the coupon bond much more than any other variable.
  • Walta, Veikko (2020)
    The determinants of FDI have been a topic of interest in economics since the 1980s and this paper aims to contribute to this field. This study aims to measure how associated FDI is with the political risk as well as to see the extent of this relationship in Turkey in the years 1996–2017. The political risk is measured as a change in indexes that are provided by the World Bank, Freedom House, and Transparency International. These political indicators are Political Rights, Civil Liberties, the Corruption Perceptions Index, Regulatory Quality, Voice and Accountability, Rule of Law, Government Effectiveness, Control of Corruption, and Political Stability. The earlier literature on FDI and political risks is mostly empirical and there has not been much theoretical research. Chakrabarti analyzed the past studies on FDI and its determinants in 2001 and found out that in the earlier research, almost every explanatory variable of FDI except the market size was sensitive to small changes in the conditioning information set, casting doubt on the robustness of the results. There have also been conducted studies that address political risk or equivalent concepts. The 2005 research of Busse and Hefeker had the same topic as this paper but their data consisted of many countries and they employed two different panel models. One was a fixed-effects panel analysis while the other utilized a generalized method of moments estimator. I selected three model specifications for the time-series regression analysis. All three specifications have market size as a control variable and the other two also have the economy’s growth rate and trade openness. The third has the inflation rate as the final control variable. The data have a small number of observations which limits the options available for the empirical part of the study. Out of the nine political indicators, Regulatory Quality is the only political indicator that is not associated with FDI, while the results on the Corruption Perceptions Index and Control of Corruption are inconclusive. The rest six are associated with FDI. The Rule of Law index has the highest estimated coefficient value of the World Bank indicators and the Political Rights index has the highest estimated coefficient value of the Freedom House’s indicators.
  • Rissanen, Julius (2021)
    Abstract Faculty: Faculty of Social Sciences Program: Economics Study track: General Track Author: Julius Vili Henrik Rissanen Title: Comparing cost-effectiveness of short-term and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapies focusing on patients with depressive disorder and their work ability during a 5-year follow-up. Level: Master’s Thesis Month and Year: November 2021 Number of Pages: Keywords: Psychotherapy; cost-effectiveness; Work Ability; psychodynamic; randomized trial; Instructors: Roope Uusitalo, Lauri Sääksvuori, Costanza Biavaschi, Olavi Lindfors Deposited at: Helsingin Yliopiston kirjasto Other information: Abstract: Background: Mental health disorders pose significant burden to the society, for example, because of decreased work ability. Psychotherapy as one of the most important treatment methods also causes significant costs for the healthcare system. Putting effort into cost-effectiveness between the different therapy types can help promote better targeting of treatments and economic efficiency in society. Aims: Explore cost-effectiveness in improving work ability between short-term and long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy in patients with depression. Methods: The 192 depressive patients randomized to two psychotherapies of different lengths in the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study were measured in baseline and annually for five years. Work Ability Index (WAI) and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) as an effectiveness outcome measures were compared to the total direct costs with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) between the treatments. Results: The total direct cost of short-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (SPP; €7,087) was significantly lower than for long-term psychodynamic psychotherapy (LPP; €19,959). The biggest explanatory factor between the cost of the treatments was protocol study therapy costs (SPP €1304; LPP €16,715). In addition, those randomized to the SPP had significant costs during the follow-up from the non-protocol auxiliary psychotherapy treatments (€5142) which were more than fives times compared to the LPP. All of these cost differences between the treatment groups were statistically significant. Psychotropic medication and outpatient care each averaged below €2000, and the differences weren’t statistically significant. Psychiatric hospitalization during the follow-up was rare but yielded significant costs to the associated patients. Differences of effectiveness between the treatment groups on the work ability were not statistically significant. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was highly unstable due to small differences in efficiency, but large differences in cost. Conclusions: The study found a clear difference in cost in favour of SPP without losing in the effectiveness of the treatment. However, patients in the SPP used a significant amount of non-protocol auxiliary psychotherapy treatments which may be an indication of insufficient therapy treatment. The absence of difference in the effectiveness can be thus attributed to the widespread utilization of additional treatments in the SPP. Going forward, expanding the study to account for the impact of patient’s suitability to the treatment, particularly in understanding SPP cost-effectiveness, would be worthwhile.
  • Ahonen, Elena Venla Maria (2017)
    The aim of this thesis is to demonstrate the importance of selecting feasible and, preferably data-based prior assumptions for the Bayesian time-varying coefficient vector autoregressive model (TVC VAR model for further reference) of Primiceri (2005) and Del Negro and Primiceri (2015). The TVC VAR model would be suitable for quantifying, for example, the impacts of different monetary policy or fiscal policy regimes. The biggest advantage of the TVC VAR model is that it takes into account both changes in economic policy and in the private sector behaviour. The latter feature makes the model very compelling to use, because the private sector plays an important role in facilitating mote stable change in monetary and fiscal policy regimes. In complex mathematical models, such as the TVC VAR model, the objectiveness of the model may be compromised by deliberate selection of parameters. The TVC VAR model uses the Bayesian approach, which means that the researcher’s choice for the prior assumptions for the model plays an important role in the estimation. Unfortunately, Primiceri’s (2005) approach for selecting hyperparameters for the model is poorly explained and difficult to follow. Given that the model depends only for a small number of hyperparameters, it might be possible that the model can be tuned in a predefined way. To investigate whether the TVC VAR model can be tuned according to a researcher’s preferences, I design a proof of concept approach for optimising the hyperparameters of the model according to a set of predefined results. In other words, my research question is: could one tune the TVC VAR model to produce results according to the researcher’s bias? In my proof of concept approach I tune the TVC VAR model for six different targets for the Finnish government consumption multiplier. Given that Finland is a small open economy, Primiceri’s (2005) original hyperparameter values for the United States are not feasible and other values have to be used. The results from my proof of concept analysis show that the TVC VAR model can be tuned for predefined results, which shows that the practical reliability of the model can be easily compromised. My findings highlight the need for a comprehensible, data-based approach for selecting the hyperparameters for the model.
  • Kuivaniemi, Esa (2024)
    Machine Learning (ML) has experienced significant growth, fuelled by the surge in big data. Organizations leverage ML techniques to take advantage of the data. So far, the focus has predominantly been on increasing the value by developing ML algorithms. Another option would be to optimize resource consumption to reach cost optimality. This thesis contributes to cost optimality by identifying and testing frameworks that enable organizations to make informed decisions on cost-effective cloud infrastructure while designing and developing ML workflows. The two frameworks we introduce to model Cost Optimality are: "Cost Optimal Query Processing in the Cloud" for data pipelines and "PALEO" for ML model training pipelines. The latter focuses on estimating the training time needed to train a Neural Net, while the first one is more generic in assessing cost-optimal cloud setup for query processing. Through the literature review, we show that it is critical to consider both the data and ML training aspects when designing a cost-optimal ML workflow. Our results indicate that the frameworks provide accurate estimates about cost-optimal hardware configuration in the cloud for ML workflow. There are deviations when we dive into the details: our chosen version of the Cost Optimal Model does not consider the impact of larger memory. Also, the frameworks do not provide accurate execution time estimates: PALEO estimates our accelerated EC2 instance to execute the training workload with half of the time it took. However, the purpose of the study was not to provide accurate execution or cost estimates, but we aimed to see if the frameworks estimate the cost-optimal cloud infrastructure setup among the five EC2 instances that we chose to execute our three different workloads.