Browsing by Subject "UNECE"

The purpose of this master’s thesis is to evaluate the reliability of forest products forecast information produced by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe member States. The study also aims to answer which dimensions of data quality are the most important when producing these predictions This study is carried out as quantitative research and it focuses on the predictions made by the 27 member States, produced between 2002 and 2017. This research aims to find out what methods are used by different member States and which methods produce the most reliable results. This research also aims to find out if there are any differences in reliability when assessing different product flows (removals, production, exports or imports) of the various products analyzed. There were clear differences visible between different products in the results of this research. In some products, almost all member States had managed to produce reliable predictions, while for others majority of member States didn’t manage that. There were also differences between member States and some were clearly more reliable than others. The biggest factor affecting reliability was volume: for most parts, bigger volumes meant more reliable predictions. Production and removals were more reliable product flow than imports or exports. This is due to the nature of imports and exports, as they are more easily affected by outside impacts. Although all member States were able to be sorted into four groups based on how different product flows looked like, no clear patterns were visible when observing how different member States produce predictions. Almost all of the interviewed representatives of member States reported that they were using almost or exactly the same methods to produce predictions.