Browsing by Subject "forecast"
Now showing items 1-2 of 2
-
(2019)The purpose of this master’s thesis is to evaluate the reliability of forest products forecast information produced by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe member States. The study also aims to answer which dimensions of data quality are the most important when producing these predictions This study is carried out as quantitative research and it focuses on the predictions made by the 27 member States, produced between 2002 and 2017. This research aims to find out what methods are used by different member States and which methods produce the most reliable results. This research also aims to find out if there are any differences in reliability when assessing different product flows (removals, production, exports or imports) of the various products analyzed. There were clear differences visible between different products in the results of this research. In some products, almost all member States had managed to produce reliable predictions, while for others majority of member States didn’t manage that. There were also differences between member States and some were clearly more reliable than others. The biggest factor affecting reliability was volume: for most parts, bigger volumes meant more reliable predictions. Production and removals were more reliable product flow than imports or exports. This is due to the nature of imports and exports, as they are more easily affected by outside impacts. Although all member States were able to be sorted into four groups based on how different product flows looked like, no clear patterns were visible when observing how different member States produce predictions. Almost all of the interviewed representatives of member States reported that they were using almost or exactly the same methods to produce predictions.
-
(2014)Passenger cars cause negative externalities to society and their role as the most important vehicle of transport in Finland is definite. Finland is globally highly motorized country and our passenger car stock is marked by its high average age which causes additional negative externalities. The passenger car stock renews slowly and therefore the effects noticed in this work will effectively take place only after 2020. The main objective of the Thesis was to widely clarify the development of Finnish passenger car stock until the year 2025 and not to go so much on specific details. Main task was to develop insights about the development of passenger cars stock size, the market shares of different technologies, the effect of development on taxes from passenger cars, reduction rates of emissions and the price tags on new technologies. The Thesis was carried out as an assignment from Finnish Transport Safety Agency Trafi and was made to serve the experts at Trafi and give them a general view about the development of Finnish passenger car stock in near future. First goal was to understand the current situation and the reasons for being here. After acquiring a wide view about the current situation the objective was to develop alternative scenarios about the development of Finnish car stock and its features. The scenarios were based on literature review, own calculations made by the writer and interviews from top experts. The outcomes of the scenarios were then analysed from different points of view. Scenarios were compared and most realistic ones were highlighted and their effects were considered to take place in Finland during the time scope. Given the large car stock and its slow renewal rate the effects and developments within the stock are considered to happen slowly. This means that new, safer and more energy efficient cars are becoming more general in the stock relatively slowly which causes the negative externalities to take place longer than in the case of fast renewal rate. Emissions levels from new cars will continue to decrease and hybrids and rechargeable hybrids will continues to get more and more market shares among new cars. The rate of development can greatly be affected with political decisions.
Now showing items 1-2 of 2