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Browsing by Subject "pankkitoiminta"

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  • Modelling Shadow Banking in China, a DSGE Approach 
    Jakonen, Oskari (2020)
    This paper constructs and analyses a variation on a DSGE model with a shadow banking system integrated in the financial sector by Falk Mazelis. Shadow banking is fundamentally described as credit intermediation outside the regular banking system and the description is specified in this paper during the process of historical review of the Chinese financial sector. Excess credit in the shadow banking sector and theoretical studies of banks’ and shadow banks different reaction to monetary policy shocks are the main motives behind this study. The Mazelis model builds upon a Gertler-Karadi DSGE model of financial intermediation with unconventional monetary policy. After mapping previous literature on banking, shadow banking and DSGE modelling the detailed model of Mazelis is adjusted by altering the monetary policy rule and four model parameters towards Chinese economical characteristics. The adjustments are and argued with data, previous literature, and theoretical arguments motivated by the historical review. The main objective of this approach is, trough the variation, to capture the effect of Chinese economical characteristics towards an economy with modelled shadow banking sector. The implications of the original model are considered as a foundation for the altered model. In the original model after tightening monetary policy, regular banks reduce the amount of loans on their balance sheet while shadow banks increase lending. This reduces the real effects of the shock, but at the same time shadow banks amplify the reaction of key variables to real shocks and can make the financial sector and the whole economy more unstable. The analysis of the altered model provides suggestions that the implemented Chinese characteristics make the economy slightly more vulnerable to a monetary policy tightening reducing capital and consumption. In addition, simulated shocks to productivity and monetary policy amplify the reactions of the financial sector in bank and shadow bank loan supply suggesting that the altered model can make the economy all the more unstable. The DSGE framework used in this paper does not try to model Chinese economy, but rather provides hints of economic elements in it and highlights specific aspects of it.
  • Mortgage loan markets and determination of mortgage interest rates in Finland 1926-1949 
    Rantataro, Saara (2023)
    There is very limited amount of previous research on Finnish housing-related mortgage market during the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s, that were characterized by the Great Depression and World War II. There is no previous consistent picture on the functioning of mortgage market that time nor full dataset on the mortgage interest rates from different banks. Also, the determination of mortgage interest rates in a historical context has been neglected in previous research. This study examines the functioning of Finnish mortgage market and determination of mortgage interest rates from 1926-1949. The study also explores, how the Great Depression and World War II as financial crises impacted interest rates and mortgage market. The functioning of Finnish mortgage market is examined based on previous housing-related historical research and archival material. The determination of interest rates is studied utilizing multivariate instrumental variable regression (2SLS) model. The model was built on three macroeconomic indicators based on the Keynesian liquidity preference theory, the variables selected to be gross domestic product, living-cost index, and money supply. The data for the research was collected from the Central Archives for Finnish Business Records, and includes for example loan registers, board minutes and banks’ internal guides. The archival materials were from Suomen Asuntohypoteekkipankki, Pohjoismainen Yhdyspankki, Kansallis-Osake-Pankki and savings banks from Uudenmaa savings bank region. The interest rate data has been collected from the Official Banking Statistics of Statistics Finland. As observed in the study, between 1926 and 1949 the Finnish mortgage market faced constant uncertainty and change due to economic and political instability. Legislation, evaluation of collaterals, as well as information retrieval on candidate debtors began to develop during this period. Despite that, banks were operating in an unpredictable environment where political steering was strong and risk evaluation difficult. The results of econometric analysis prove that the determination of interest rates cannot only be explained by the liquidity preference theory. They were determined also by political factors, like the interest rate agreements formed by the banks in 1930s and 1940s. The agreements sought to provide stability in turbulent times. The dataset on interest rates utilized in this study was very small, and that is why the econometric analysis cannot provide final conclusions on the interest rate movements and determination dynamics between 1926-1949. However, the results obtained in this study can provide a comprehensive picture on the actors participating the loan market, principles behind granting loans, and changes in the aforementioned. This information helps, for example, to re-evaluate the functioning of housing markets at the time and asses the coping of households during the Great Depression and World War II. Additionally, the regression analysis provides one perspective to the dynamics behind interest rate determination. This information can be useful in modern context while assessing the impact of interest rate level alterations as well as in societal problem solving.

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