Diagnostic model analysis of decade scale changes of Baltic Sea hydrography

The temperature and the salinity fields (i.e. the hydrography) of the Baltic Sea determine the density and hence the stratification and density depended circulation of the sea. These features are affected by the changes in the hydrologic circulation, most importantly by the changes in the atmospheric circulation and in the water exchange with the North Sea. The aims of this thesis are to study the hydrographical conditions and changes for the period 1971 - 2007 of the surface and bottom layers of the Baltic Sea and the model sensitivity to number of variables. The surface layer is well studied, but on the whole Baltic Sea scale, the bottom layer studies are rare in number. The halocline and thermocline depths are also included, since they provide information about the mixing. By combining the information from the surface and the bottom, the overview for the whole hydrographical state is provided. For the analysis, three hindcast simulations based on the three-dimensional North-Baltic Sea model are used. The simulations differ in the number of vertical layers, initial conditions and the strength of the bottom drag coefficient. The results show that the vertical stratification is weaker in model than what is observed in in-situ measurements. The simulations differ remarkably in the salinity level and in its evolution. On average, the salinity is decreasing 0.1 - 0.4 ppt per decade except on the deepest parts of the Baltic Proper. The temperature is increasing at the surface and above the permanent halocline on average 0.2 - 0.4 degree Celsius per decade. Large regional differences between the west and east coast of the basins were found. The bottom temperature increase up to 1 degree Celsius per decade was found in the eastern coast of the eastern Gotland Basin, whereas on the Swedish coast the changes are more moderate and during some months, opposite. On the opposite site of the Bothnian Sea and the Gotland Basin, monthly anomalies up to degree Celsius were found for autumn months. In the deeper layers, the temperature decreases 0.2 - 0.4 degree Celsius per decade. The study showed that the Baltic Sea is undergoing a rapid change. In order to get a more detailed view of the changes in stratification and circulation, the changes in density should be studied next.