Browsing by Author "Rauma, Eemil"

Passenger cars cause negative externalities to society and their role as the most important vehicle of transport in Finland is definite. Finland is globally highly motorized country and our passenger car stock is marked by its high average age which causes additional negative externalities. The passenger car stock renews slowly and therefore the effects noticed in this work will effectively take place only after 2020. The main objective of the Thesis was to widely clarify the development of Finnish passenger car stock until the year 2025 and not to go so much on specific details. Main task was to develop insights about the development of passenger cars stock size, the market shares of different technologies, the effect of development on taxes from passenger cars, reduction rates of emissions and the price tags on new technologies. The Thesis was carried out as an assignment from Finnish Transport Safety Agency Trafi and was made to serve the experts at Trafi and give them a general view about the development of Finnish passenger car stock in near future. First goal was to understand the current situation and the reasons for being here. After acquiring a wide view about the current situation the objective was to develop alternative scenarios about the development of Finnish car stock and its features. The scenarios were based on literature review, own calculations made by the writer and interviews from top experts. The outcomes of the scenarios were then analysed from different points of view. Scenarios were compared and most realistic ones were highlighted and their effects were considered to take place in Finland during the time scope. Given the large car stock and its slow renewal rate the effects and developments within the stock are considered to happen slowly. This means that new, safer and more energy efficient cars are becoming more general in the stock relatively slowly which causes the negative externalities to take place longer than in the case of fast renewal rate. Emissions levels from new cars will continue to decrease and hybrids and rechargeable hybrids will continues to get more and more market shares among new cars. The rate of development can greatly be affected with political decisions.