Browsing by Subject "futures research"

Towards the year 2030 in Finland, sustainability issues will be dominated by climate change, the worsening state of the Baltic Sea, technological and technical development, globalization, the degradation of ecosystem services and increasing energy consumption. At the decision-making level, setting strategic objectives towards the year 2030 should consist of increasing energy efficiency, halting the reduction of biodiversity and changing consumption habits. Furthermore, promoting public transportation, limiting greenhouse gas emissions, increasing the proportion of renewable energy sources and linking climate policy to all sustainable development policies should be targeted in strategic long-term planning. This master’s thesis research was implemented as a Delphi study, a method commonly used in futures research. In a Delphi study the expertise of a chosen panel is utilized to gather information on a given topic. The research aimed at investigating the experts’ views on 1) the most important driving forces – changes and trends – affecting sustainable development towards the year 2030 2) the desirability and probability of different sustainability objectives and 3) recognizing the potential political conflicts brought by these strategies. The Delphi study was carried out during February 2010 – April 2010. It consisted of two rounds. The first round questionnaire was sent 43 experts (response rate 56 %). During the second round the most interesting first round results were completed with qualitative arguments (response rate 50 %). The results were analyzed in the manner that the research issues of most interest were 1) the trends having the most importance towards the year 2030 2) the most desirable strategic objectives with a high probability for political conflicts. The results indicate a high risk for political conflict especially with the targets on halting the reduction of biodiversity and changing consumption habits. These two objectives were considered difficult to grasp and often overruled by economic interests. Changing the current societal system based on continuous growth and consumption would require profound alterations in economy, society and individual values. The results also indicate that energy is a key issue for the coming decades: setting strategic objectives for replacing fossil fuels should be among the top priorities of the Finnish national government. Also, in addition for climate change being an important trend, the deviation of rankings in importance among the panel indicated a possibility for social and economic trends to have unexpected, sudden effects as we move towards the year 2030. These include global poverty and inequality, changing age structures and the sustainability of the Finnish economy.