Browsing by Subject "ydinvoima"

Following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011, Germany swiftly decommissioned eight of its seventeen nuclear reactors, ultimately committing to a complete nuclear phase-out. Consequently, a substantial portion of nuclear power production was replaced by fossil fuels. Given the established link between fossil fuel use in electricity generation and localized air pollution, this transition likely adversely affected local air quality and associated respiratory health effects. This thesis examines the unintended health consequences of Germany's nuclear phase-out, focusing on premature mortality from non-communicable respiratory diseases, quantified through Potential Years of Life Lost. This thesis uses the synthetic control method to investigate the health outcomes of nuclear phase-outs, adding to the limited existing literature in this domain. Employing synthetic control techniques and utilizing mortality data from the World Health Organization, I am able to construct a counterfactual scenario representing a Germany that did not phase out nuclear energy. This allows me to assess the trajectories of potential years of life lost due to non-communicable respiratory diseases following the nuclear plant closures. I find an annual increase of 14 potential years of life lost per 100,000 residents after these closures, predominantly affecting individuals aged 50 to 64. The resulting economic costs due to this increased mortality range between five billion to 19 billion euros, depending on the chosen value of life year. Considering the exceedingly low probability of Fukushima scale nuclear accident, these figures surpass the expected damages of a such accident. In sum, this thesis underscores the importance of considering potential unintended consequences of policy changes. The German nuclear phase-out led to amplified mortality and economic expenditures. Despite its substantial local impact, local air pollution remains less recognized than greenhouse gas emissions. Policymakers should extend their considerations in the energy sector to encompass local air pollution alongside greenhouse gas emissions.