Browsing by Subject "Futures Studies"

This study aims to explore the possible scenarios for the future of broadcasting media policy in Iran in a 10 years’ time horizon. To explore the futures alternatives, this research reviews the historical patterns and deconstructs the present situation of broadcasting media policy in Iran. Moreover, the key parameters shaping the possible futures and the alternative conditions of every key parameter are identified as the main blocks for constructing the futures scenarios. The current study reviews the relevant literature about public policy, media policy, and broadcasting media policy. The theoretical framework covers controversial debates about different conceptions of public policy and different practices of policy-making for media platforms. In addition, different models of policy process are illustrated in the literature review, as they are used to understand different policy-making procedures in different futures scenarios. This study also reviews the history of policy-making for broadcast media in Iran, from the beginning days till the present time. Futures Studies (FS) methodology is utilized in the methodological framework of this study because exploring the possible futures is the main goal of this research. In the first phase, Environmental Scanning as a Futures method, along with thematic coding are used to explore the present situation of broadcasting media policy in Iran. The data is based on all the laws, regulations and legislation reinforcing public policies concerning broadcast media and the broadcasting system. In the second phase, Delphi method is used to collect experts’ opinions on the key parameters of the possible futures and their conditions. The experts are chosen based on their expertise in the fields of Futures Studies, media studies, policy studies and relevant study areas. In the final stage, the process of scenario construction is accomplished by General Morphological Analysis as a scenario method. The data for scenario building is based on the results of the previous phases. The results of this study indicate the main characteristics of the present situation and the possible scenarios for the future of broadcasting media policy in Iran. The present themes of broadcasting media policy in Iran include rigid state ownership, promoting political and cultural discourses, unification, using state secured budgets, focusing on mass audience, and developing air broadcasting technology. The key parameters of the future of broadcasting media policy in Iran, identified among a total number of 19 parameters, consist of ownership, fundamental goal, market situation, budgets, target audience, and technology. Based on the key parameters and their conditions, four possible scenarios for the future of broadcasting media policy in Iran are constructed. The path-dependent policy scenario illustrates the continuity of the status quo and reinforcement of the present situation. In this scenario, broadcasting market remains monopolized and controlled by Iran’s state regime. The transformative policy scenario shows a possible alternative in which all the crucial aspects of broadcasting media policy change and transform to a more liberal, diverse and less regulated situation with a competitive media market and various actors and participants. The control-based policy scenario and the mixed policy scenario are the median possible scenarios. In both these scenarios, some policy changes emerge, while the state regime is still eager to be the main actor in the process of policy-making for the broadcasting system. The main difference between these two scenarios is the extent of change and stability.