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Browsing by study line "Studieinriktningen ekonomisk forskning"

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  • Holster, Tuukka (2019)
    The design of college admissions has been a heatedly discussed topic in Finland, as recent government initiatives have led to a more centralized system. Some argue for letting colleges decide on their admissions procedures, while others believe that a centralized matchmaking procedure with priorities determined by the matriculation examination would be more cost-effective. This thesis aims to characterize various factors that the policy maker must take into account when designing a college admissions procedure, in light of existing theoretical research on both centralized and decentralized matching markets and empirical studies on social determinants of college choice and the capacity of entrance examinations to elicit information on student ability and motivation. The two-sided matching literature is discussed extensively because of its usefulness for designing centralized clearinghouses for matching markets. The student-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm emerges as the best choice for a policy maker who regards strategy-proofness and respecting of priorities as especially important, at least if manipulation by colleges is implausible. However, strategy-proofness is fragile in practical applications, applicants may try to manipulate also strategy-proof mechanisms and reporting the whole preference relation is still only weakly dominant. Consequently, satisfaction of reported preferences should not be taken as evidence of welfare properties of a matching without qualifications. The use of a common entrance examination may be more cost effective than a system based on college-specific entrance examinations, as colleges do not then need to spend resources on organizing the examinations. However, students have then stronger incentives to perform in the common entrance examination, and there is already evidence that more students retake the matriculation examination in Finland. The overall effect on the costs of organizing entrance examinations is an uncertain empirical matter. The importance of preparation courses is likely to decrease, which saves resources and contributes to socioeconomic equity. On the other hand, making students choose on their study paths earlier in life may erode socioeconomic equity. A larger role for the matriculation examination provides stronger incentives for showing effort in high school, which the policy maker may see as beneficial. While a system with a common entrance examination makes it possible for a student to get admitted to a second preference when she is rejected by her first preference, it remains an empirical question to what extent this reduces the propensity to apply again to competitive colleges. The excess demand for certain colleges is a result of student preferences and is not solvable by any mechanism that gives a strong priority to satisfying student preferences.
  • Markkula, Tuomas (2020)
    This thesis evaluates the effects of entry on incumbent firms' prices and procedures volume in dental care markets using difference-in-differences regression and administrative data on private dental care visits reimbursed by the Social Insurance Institution of Finland. The entry is considered as a competition increasing shock. The entrant's prices were remarkably low at the time of the entry and the firm was able to acquire a large share of volume in common procedures performed at the market. Thus, the entrant offered a real low-cost alternative to the residents of the Capital Region. I focus on examinations and fillings, which are two of the most common procedures. Patients face switching costs when changing their dental care provider. This means that incumbent firms with locked-in customers might be able to accommodate the entry easier, than without the switching costs. The results show that incumbent firms do not lower their prices in response to the entry by economically significant amount. However, the results suggest that incumbent firms perform less fillings after the entry. The effect is driven by summer months. The pattern where the incumbent firms do not change their prices and lose a share of their turnover to the entrant is consistent with the theoretical switching costs literature.
  • Anttonen, Jetro (2019)
    In this thesis, a conditional BVARX forecasting model for short and medium term economic forecasting is developed. The model is especially designed for small-open economies and its performance on forecasting several Finnish economic variables is assessed. Particular attention is directed to the hyperparameter choice of the model. A novel algorithm for hyperparameter choice is proposed and it is shown to outperform the marginal likelihood based approach often encountered in the literature. Other prominent features of the model include conditioning on predictive densities and exogeneity of the global economic variables. The model is shown to outperform univariate benchmark models in terms of forecasting accuracy for forecasting horizons up to eight quarters ahead.
  • Tahvonen, Ossi (2021)
    Despite continuous improvements in treatments, childhood cancers are among the most common causes of death for children in Finland. The cancer treatments are often arduous and have long-lasting effects even beyond the person diagnosed. Estimating these effects is important, since they can affect the cost-effectiveness of many policies. This thesis focuses on estimating the effects of childhood cancer on parental labour market outcomes, especially on the earnings gap between genders. Estimating the causal connection between health and socioeconomic variables is difficult for many reasons. In this thesis, a quasi-experimental method called "staggered differences-in-differences" is employed to solve this problem. In this method, families where cancer is diagnosed are compared to those that are diagnosed at a different time, and this way the true causal effect can be estimated. The thesis used administrative data from all childhood cancer diagnoses in Finland during years 1999-2017. The results show that childhood cancer reduces parents' income significantly. In short run, the effect is around 30% of the income before the diagnosis for mothers and around 7% for fathers. For mothers, the decline in employment is also significant. The welfare state provides support to these families to the extent that the decline in the income after transfers is not as large. The gender earnings difference increases around 20% in the short run, and increases also in families where mother is the main provider in the years before the diagnosis. My results are robust to different checks, including alternative estimators to correct for possible cohort-heterogeneous effects. The previous research is scarce and has provided differing estimates, but the results of this thesis are in line with the most relevant literature. The decline in earnings can be caused by the need to take care of the child, mental health effects or declined accumulation of human capital. While it is hard to suggest policy changes based on these results alone, the current benefits around ill children are short in duration and focused on one person and the results indicate that perhaps a longer benefit scheme distributed more evenly between genders might provide different outcomes.
  • Haaga, Tapio (2020)
    I study whether modest copayment increases affect the general practitioner (GP) use in Finland, a country with relatively low copayments, low inequality, and an extensive welfare state. I also examine whether the estimates are driven by certain low–income groups considered to be economically vulnerable. The Finnish Government allowed municipalities to increase copayments in 2015 and 2016 by 9.5% and 27.5% respectively. At maximum, this meant that the copayment for a GP visit was 20.90 euros at the beginning of 2016, approximately 40% higher than at the end of 2014. Almost all municipalities made the 9.5% increase at the start of 2015, but some of them decided not to make the 27.5% increase at all or made smaller increases. I exploit this variation by estimating two–way fixed effects regression models, and I use population–wide administrative data containing all primary healthcare visits in 2013–2018 and socioeconomic information on patients. In the models, copayment increases are negatively associated with both GP use and median waiting times. Based on the means of estimates from several specifications, the 27.5% increase alone is associated with a 2% decrease in visits per resident in the first four quarters after the change and a 6% decrease thereafter. The estimates are not statistically significant. The median waiting times decrease by two days in the first year after the change and five days thereafter, and these results are significant. When I estimate the effects of both increases, the means of estimates are now a 5% decrease in visits per resident in the first four quarters after the last increase and an 8% decrease thereafter. Some of the estimates are statistically significant. I find no evidence to support the hypothesis that the low–income groups were more sensitive to the increases. However, the confidence intervals are wide across the study, suggesting that the design may be underpowered to detect small effects from zero. Moreover, the point estimates are surprisingly far from zero, which is especially surprising when upper income quintiles are concerned. Therefore, more evidence is needed to be able to make firm conclusions about the causal effects of policy changes.
  • Tolonen, Topias (2020)
    We consider a so-called principal-agent problem, where our aim is to construct an optimal contract that maximises utilities for the contractor, the principal, and for the effort-exerting party, the agent. In our setting, the time-horizon of the contract is infinite, and the agent receives a continuously paid compensation for exerting effort. Our main goal is to establish a problem introduced in Sannikov (2008) and characterise an optimal contract by restricting the menu of feasible contracts, an approach inspired by Cvitanic et. al. (2018) We begin with an extensive literature review, where we review the continuous-time principal-agent problems and further motivate the scope of this thesis. We start from the notable article Holmström et. al. (1987), and we progress towards the works Williams (2008), Sannikov (2008) and Cvitanic et. al. (2018) Following the review, we construct the problem and lay the mathematical foundations for it. We focus on a new benchmark setting, adapted from Sannikov (2008) and Cvitanic et. al. (2018). We first define the so-called controlled state equation, and construct the canonical probability space. Then, we introduce then impose few assumptions regarding the core concepts, and identify the problems of the agent and the principal and characterise their objective functions. After characterising the problem, we characterise the optimal contract and show that the optimal contract maximises the principal's profit. We characterise the difference function of Sannikov (2008) to the agent's optimisation problem, and then follow Cvitanic et. al. (2018) on the reduction of the problem. The reduction is done by restricting the possible menu of contracts and thus reduce the non-standard problem to a dynamic programming problem. We introduce the corresponding Hamiltonian functionals, together with the value functions to the both principal and the agent. Furthermore, we introduce a family restricted processes, which we show to characterise the optimal contract. We finish with showing that the optimal contract exists even with the notion of retirement. Having completed the main technical contribution, that is, having solved for the optimal contract, we briefly discuss the results and their implications against previous literature. Additionally, we discuss the possible extensions to our research.
  • Leinonen, Nea (2021)
    Earnings insurance is a measure of how much earnings of a worker change relative to idiosyncratic shock to firm performance. In case of full earnings insurance, shocks are not passed onto earnings at all and otherwise earnings insurance is partial. Linked employer-employee data is widely used in this recent empirical research interest due to its rich nature. This paper explores earnings insurance in Finland by focusing on three aspects: how much firms in Finland provide earnings insurance, are there differences in levels of earnings insurance between industries and whether partial earnings insurance is driven by hours worked or hourly wage. The main findings are that firms in Finland provide partial but substantial earnings insurance in all industries and that hours worked play a smaller role than hourly wage in determining partial earnings insurance. Because data on hours worked is not available in many countries, this paper is able to bring new insight on the role of hours worked and hourly wage in the composition of partial earnings insurance. However, hours worked and hourly wage explain only around half of partial earnings insurance, so the result should be considered with caution.
  • Togno, Francesca (2020)
    This thesis attempts to examine how much a representative consumer per each country is willing to pay to avoid global warming by analysing their welfare gains from having a smoother consumption path. Temperature variations affect economic activity, and consumption is subject to shocks related to global warming. I start by reviewing the economic literature that studied the relationship between temperatures and economic activity. I highlight which are the main effects on the economy that are correlated to rising temperatures and I review the methods that are usually employed by economists to assess environmental damages. I then take a sample of 163 countries and compute the welfare gains for each country for having a smoother consumption path, following the method used by Lucas (2003). To do this, I use country-level household consumption data and I set values for the risk aversion coefficient following the suggestions of the previous economic literature. I repeat the experiment with a smaller sample of 72 countries, this time using country-specific risk aversion coefficients retrieved from Gandelman and Hernández-Murillo (2015). In both cases, I obtain that most of the countries have welfare gains lying in the order of 10^-2 and 10^-3. Using annual temperature data, I test the Spearman correlation coefficient between welfare gains and average temperatures. Although the previous literature stressed the adverse effects of global warming on the economy, I find no significant correlation between these two variables. Countries that are more at risk do not display higher welfare gains than countries with a lower risk of imminent climate damages. To explain my results, I then consider determinants of risk aversion other than temperature and conclude that risk aversion, and consequently the value of welfare gains, can depend on several other factors.
  • Korhonen, Markus (2019)
    Hintavakauden saavuttamisesta on tullut keskuspankkien tärkeimpiä tehtäviä kaikkialla maailmassa, ja useat keskuspankit pyrkivät tiettyyn, hyvin määriteltyyn inflaatiotavoitteeseen. Samoin Euroopan keskuspankki pyrkii rahapolitiikallaan pitämään inflaation kahden prosentin tuntumassa. Inflaatiotavoite kuitenkin vaatii sen, että inflaatiota voidaan ennustaa mahdollisimman tarkasti. Koneoppimismetodeihin kuuluvat neuroverkkomallit ovat osoittautuneet olemaan monilla aloilla hyviä ennustemalleja. Inflaation ennustamisessa neuroverkkomallien tulokset ovat kuitenkin olleet ristiriitaisia. Aiempi tutkimus inflaation ennustamisesta on myös keskittynyt lähinnä Yhdysvaltojen ja muiden yksittäisten maiden inflaatioon. Tutkimusta ei ole myöskään tehty inflaation ennustamisesta eri suhdannetilanteissa neuroverkkomallien avulla. Tässä tutkielmassa tutkittiinkin neuroverkkomallin kykyä ennustaa inflaatiota koko euroalueella vuosien 2008-2009 taantuman aikana. Tutkielman aineistona käytettiin euroalueen harmonisoidusta kuluttajahintaindeksistä muodostettua inflaatioaikasarjaa vuosilta 1997-2010. Tutkielmassa epälineaarinen neuroverkko rakennettiin aiemmasta kirjallisuudesta vakiintuneella metodilla, jossa mallin valinta suoritettiin käyttämällä erillistä aineistoa. Valitulla mallilla simuloitiin aitoa ennustetilannetta käyttämällä euroalueen taantuman aikaista testiaineistoa. Ennusteet tehtiin myös taantuman jälkeiselle noususuhdanteelle, jotta eri suhdannetilanteita voitiin vertailla. Lisäksi samat ennusteet tehtiin ekonometriassa vakiintuneella lineaarisella mallilla, johon neuroverkkomallia verrattiin käyttämällä aiemmasta kirjallisuudesta tuttuja arviointikriteerejä ja tilastollisia testejä. Tutkielmassa selvisi, että neuroverkkomalli tuottaa hyvin tarkkoja ennusteita inflaatiolle kaikilla tutkielmassa käytetyillä ennusteväleillä. Neuroverkkomallin ennusteet ovat myös parempia, jos käytettävä aineisto on kausitasoitettu. Neuroverkkomalli tekee pienempiä ennustevirheitä noususuhdanteen aikana kuin taantumassa, mutta erot eri suhdannetilanteissa eivät ole kovin suuria. Neuroverkkomallin ennusteet eivät kuitenkaan poikkea yksinkertaisen lineaarisen mallin tekemistä ennusteista tilastollisesti merkitsevästi kummassakaan suhdannetilanteessa. Näin ollen neuroverkkomallin ei voida päätellä toimivan eri tavalla taloudellisessa taantumassa kuin muissa suhdannetilanteissa. Tutkielman tulosten perusteella neuroverkkomallia ei voida suositella keskuspankkien inflaatioennustemalliksi, koska mallin valinta ja testaaminen vievät yksinkertaista lineaarista mallia enemmän aikaa, mutta ennustetulokset eivät ole lineaarista mallia parempia. Tulokset antavatkin todisteita siitä, että inflaatio on euroalueella lineaarinen prosessi, jolloin epälineaariset mallit eivät tuota ennusteisiin lisähyötyä. Neuroverkkomallit voivat kuitenkin antaa hyvän työkalun keskuspankkien toiminnan arvioimiseen, koska niiden tuottamat ennusteet ovat tarkkoja pitemmillekin aikaväleille.
  • Sirviö, Tom-Henrik (2021)
    During the recent decades corporate income tax rates have declined. This development may be due to several issues, such as changes in the political environment or increased knowledge of behavioral effects of corporate taxation. One prominent explanation is tax competition. Tax competition is defined as noncooperative tax regime setting by independent governments such that the tax policy decisions affect the allocation of mobile tax base(s) among different countries. Tax regimes include the statutory tax rates as well as the tax bases and other parts of corporate tax systems. Tax competition is an important phenomenon for multiple reasons. Lower tax rates may imply issues in financing the public sector. On the other hand, it makes some of the issues of the international corporate tax system visible. This thesis reviews theories of tax competition. The aim is to provide an analysis of the different aspects of tax competition and review how different institutional structures are modelled in tax competition framework. Studying the main implications of tax competition is an important part of the thesis. The first formal models of tax competition consider a world economy which consists of many identical countries. Firms maximize profits and governments maximize utility of the representative agent. It is shown that tax competition drives tax rates to an inefficiently low level. Later tax competition research develops both the institutional set -up of tax competition and modelling frameworks applied to study it. The results of this thesis imply that the result of the first tax competition models is strong. Tax competition drives corporate tax rates to an inefficiently low level even if the key assumptions are relaxed. On the other hand, some important extensions imply that corporate income tax rates are in an optimal level even in presence of tax competition. However, in most cases tax competition is harmful since it drives corporate income tax rates to inefficiently low levels. On the other hand, tax competition literature also provides other results. Considering sequential tax competition instead of simultaneous shows that tax rates may in equilibrium be higher if one country acts as a leader. This may be one explanation why tax rates have not declined to zero as the famous race to the bottom hypothesis suggests. Tax competition literature also provides analysis on the effect of tax havens. These results are, however, more confusing. Tax competition can decrease welfare or be welfare improving. This thesis reviews important aspects of tax competition literature and focuses on the institutional set-up of theories of tax competition. There remain some gaps in the literature. Some institutional set-ups are not analysed in the tax competition context. On the other hand, literature focusing on the empirics of tax competition is scarce. One of the important aspects of tax competition is how to limit it. This issue has a great amount of current attention in the work of OECD, for example.
  • Holvio, Anna (2021)
    Whereas primary school enrolment has grown to be nearly universal on a global scale, learning results have not kept up with the rapidly expanding systems. This is particularly true in Mozambique, where fourth-grade students lack basic skills of literacy and numeracy. Research has established that teacher quality has a large effect on student achievement. Out of the observable teacher characteristics, teacher content knowledge has most consistently been found to have a positive impact on student achievement. This study seeks to answer how large a causal impact teacher content knowledge has on student achievement in Mozambican primary schools. The data for this study come from a Service Delivery Indicator survey in Mozambique from 2014. They include assessments of fourth-grade students and their teachers in math and Portuguese, and are nationally representative. The empirical analysis exploits within-student across-subject variation. This allows to introduce not only student fixed effects, but also teacher fixed effects into the model, because all students in the sample are taught by a same teacher in both subjects, therefore strengthening the causal identification. First-differencing is then used to derive the estimable equation, which explains student achievement by teacher content knowledge only. The main results suggest that teacher content knowledge in math and Portuguese does not have a statistically significant impact on student achievement. However, further analyses show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the results. This is not unexpected, as Mozambique itself is a rather heterogenous country with large contrasts. Increasing teacher content knowledge by 1 SD increases student achievement by 0.14 SD among students with Portuguese as their first language, and by 0.13 SD among students in urban schools. Increasing the content knowledge of teachers whose knowledge is above the median also increases the achievement of students whose knowledge is above the median by over 0.12 SD. Based on the results, it is plausible that students’ poor knowledge of Portuguese is a fundamental problem for their learning, and something that should be prioritised. This could be done by improving language education at the earlier grades, or by expanding bilingual education, for instance. Because students with their knowledge below the median are unaffected by teacher content knowledge, this suggests that teaching is perhaps targeted to the more advanced students, and those who have already fallen behind benefit very little from it.
  • Rautala, Martta (2021)
    This thesis studies possible factors associated with the earnings differences between Finnish and Swedish immigrants at the beginning of the 20th century in the United States. Economics literature has provided multiple explanations for the economic assimilation of immigrants. Fundamentally immigrant assimilation in economic theory is seen as a process of country-specific human capital accumulation. Many factors, however, can affect this process. In this thesis, I will test whether the earnings differences between Finnish and Swedish immigrants were associated with their location choices, size of the immigrant communities, English skills and linguistic distance between immigrant’s mother tongue and English. In addition, I test whether even within industries, the earnings differences persist and whether in addition to Swedes, Finns also differ from other Nordic immigrants. To do this, I will use a longitudinal dataset of 28 621 European male immigrants observed in 1900, 1910 and 1920 and use pooled OLS to estimate the earnings differences of Finnish and Swedish immigrants at different stages of their migration period. First, I find that at the time of arrival or at most 5 years after it, Finnish immigrants earn more than otherwise comparable Swedish immigrants. After more than 30 years in the United States, however, Finns earn substantially less than their Swedish counterparts. Also, not only did the Finns diverge from the earnings of the Swedes with the time spent in the United States, but also from their initial level of earnings. I then find that controlling for location choices and the size of the immigrant communities slightly reduce the earnings gap between long-term Finnish and Swedish immigrants. Differences in English skills, on the other hand, are not found to be associated with the earnings differences. Instead, I find that long-term Finnish and Swedish immigrants have almost equal probabilities of knowing English and that Finnish immigrants accumulate language skills at a substantial rate after arrival. The negative earnings gap among long-term Finnish and Swedish immigrants persists even within industries. However, although remaining negative, controlling for industry fixed effects reduces the earnings gap by over 50 %, suggesting that a large fraction of the negative earnings gap was associated with Finnish immigrants being active in low-paying industries. Finally, I find that the similar pattern applies not only to Swedish immigrants but also to other Nordic immigrants. At the time of arrival, Finns seem to earn more than otherwise comparable Nordic immigrants but after more than 30 years in the United States, Finns earn substantially less than their Nordic counterparts.
  • Silvennoinen, Erkka (2021)
    Since 1991, Finland has subsidized homeownership with first-time homebuyer’s stamp duty and transfer tax exemptions. Under certain conditions, buyers with ownership shares of at least 0.5 are exempted from paying a tax of 2% on the free-of-debt price for housing company dwellings and 4% on the free-of-debt price for directly owned houses. The previous empirical literature suggests that transfer taxes may lead to large reductions in housing transactions, household mobility, and housing prices. This thesis studies whether there is evidence of similar effects among first-time homebuyers by focusing on the first-time homebuyer’s transfer tax exemption. The analysis is based on microdata provided by Statistics Finland and Tax Administration on all permanent residents in Finland and housing company shareholdings. Therefore, this study is limited to housing company dwelling transactions, and it does not cover the effects on directly-owned house transactions. The effect on the first-time home purchase decision is studied using a regression discontinuity design among a subgroup that has not lived in owner-occupied dwellings in adulthood except potentially in the household of their parents. The effect on housing prices is studied using a fixed-effects regression model. The findings show that first-time home purchases drop by roughly 30% at the age threshold of 40 years, where buyers become ineligible for the tax exemption. Similarly, covariate-adjusted estimates show that tax-exempted purchases are on average roughly 1% more expensive than purchases without the tax exemption. If the underlying identification assumptions hold, these estimates can be interpreted as the causal effects of the tax exemption. However, there are potential threats to internal validity. The credibility of the assumptions is studied by conducting graphical and formal tests that typically accompany regression discontinuity designs. There is some evidence consistent with the possibility that the assumptions do not hold, but the evidence is also consistent with alternative explanations related to data limitations. Neither possibility can be ruled out definitively.
  • Janatuinen, Miia (2021)
    The electricity sector plays a central role in climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. At the same time, it is also affected by the climate. The ongoing clean energy transition has made the link between electricity sector and weather even stronger since the increasing intermittent renewable energy production is increasingly weather dependent and cannot respond to abrupt changes in demand. Therefore, understanding how the electricity demand reacts to the changes in the climate is crucial for designing policies that support sustainable transition to the net zero economy. The thesis sheds light on these challenges and studies the effects of temperature on the intra-day electricity load in four European countries, Finland, Germany, France and Spain. The research questions are how temperature affects the hourly electricity consumption and whether these effects are different at different hours of the day. The sample consists of data on aggregate hourly electricity load and hourly population weighted temperatures over a period of over 10 years. The hour-specific effects of temperature on electricity load are estimated with a linear regression model of high-frequency fixed effects that allows credible identification of the short-run effects. However, the approach can not address the role of changing behavioural, economic or technological factors which are left for future work. The effects are estimated for each country separately, which also allows to capture the heterogeneity between countries. The results confirm the finding in the previous literature of the non-linear relationship between temperature and electricity load. In particular, electricity load is estimated to be more sensitive to temperature at the extreme temperatures and a comfort zone at which the electricity consumption is estimated to be insensitive to changes in temperatures is found for all countries. However, in Finland and France, the temperature effects are more pronounced at the cold temperatures, whereas in Germany and Spain, the effects are more symmetric. Moreover, in France, Germany and Spain, a comfort zone is estimated to be at colder temperatures in the morning and to shift to warmer temperatures in the afternoon. This implies that, at temperatures approximately between 10℃ and 20℃, heating is more sensitive to changes in temperature at the afternoon hours whereas cooling is more sensitive to changes in temperature at the early morning hours in the three countries. In Finland, the effects of temperature are relatively constant between hours. In conclusion, the results imply that temperatures contribute to the changing dynamics in the electricity sector, affecting both the intra-day variability and the level of the electricity consumption. However, the role of temperatures in these dynamics is relatively moderate.
  • Korpela, Heikki (2020)
    Tutkielmassa arvioidaan, miten työttömyysturvan enimmäiskeston rajaaminen vuonna 2014 on vaikuttanut työttömyyden pituuteen. Enimmäisaikaa lyhennettiin tuolloin 100 päivällä niiltä työttömiltä, joilla on alle 3 vuoden työhistoria. Tutkimuksen aineistona on käytetty henkilötason rekisteriaineistoja työttömyysetuuksista ja ansaintajaksoista. Toimenpiteen vaikutusta arvioidaan vertaamalla, miten ero lyhyen ja pitkän työhistorian henkilöiden työttömyysjaksoissa muuttuu vuonna 2014. Erotukset erotuksissa -asetelmassa ei tunnisteta tilastollisesti merkitseviä vaikutuksia jaksojen pituudessa. Lyhyen työhistorian työttömien havaitut keskimääräiset työttömyysjaksot pitenivät selvästi sekä verrattuna edelliseen vuoteen että suhteessa pidemmän työhistorian työttömiin. Käytettyä tutkimusasetelmaa rasittavat muut samanaikaiset muutokset työttömyysturvassa, suhdannevaihtelun mahdollisesti erilaiset vaikutukset ryhmiin sekä luokitteluun liittyvä mittausvirhe. Kokonaisuutena arvioiden tutkimusasetelman oletuksia ja siten asetelman luotettavuutta kohtaan jää vakava epäily. Lisätarkasteluna tutkielmassa esitetään ennen–jälkeen -arvio siitä, miten työttömyys on muuttunut vuonna 2017. Tuolloin työttömyysturvan enimmäiskestoa lyhennettiin kaikilta 100 päivällä. Tässä tarkastelussa havaitaan, että työttömyysjaksot ovat lyhentyneet merkittävästi useissa kohdin työttömyyden aikaprofiilia. Keskimäärin jaksojen pituus on vähentynyt jopa yli 20 etuuspäivällä tai 20 prosentilla. Muutos on suunnaltaan sopusoinnussa aiemman tutkimuskirjallisuuden kanssa. Enimmäiskeston rajauksen mahdollista vaikutusta ei tässä tapauksessa voida kuitenkaan luotettavasti erottaa muista työttömyyden pituuteen vaikuttavista tekijöistä.