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Browsing by Subject "Oil spill"

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  • Vikkula, Sami (2021)
    Oil spills in aquatic environments are devastating disasters with both biological and economic impacts. Fish populations are among the many subjects of these impacts. In literature, there are numerous assessments of oil spill impacts on fish populations. From all applied research methods, the focus of this thesis is on Bayesian methods. In prior research, several Bayesian models have been developed for assessing oil spill impacts on fish populations. These models, however, have focused on the assessment of impacts from past spills. They have not been used for predicting impacts of possible future oil spills. Furthermore, the models have not utilized data from laboratory studies. Some examples can be found of models assessing economic impacts of oil spills on fish populations however, none of them assess the economic impacts that follow from decreases in biomass. The aim of this thesis is to develop a Bayesian bioeconomic prediction model, which would be able to predict oil spill impacts on Baltic Sea main basin herring population, and the consequential economic impacts on fishermen. The idea is to predict the impacts of several hypothetical oil spill scenarios. As a result of this thesis, a bioeconomic prediction model was developed, which can predict both biological and economic impacts of oil spills on Baltic Sea main basin herring through additional oil induced mortality of herring eggs. The model can be applied to other fish populations in other regions as well. The model utilizes laboratory studies for assessing population level impacts. The model can be used for both assessing risks of the impacts of possible future oil spills, and for decision analysis after a spill has already occurred. Furthermore, the model can be used for assessing unknown aspects of past oil spills. The economic predictions can be used, for example, to estimate the compensations that could possibly be paid to fishermen. In the future, the prediction model should be developed further, especially regarding its stock-recruitment relationship assumptions. In addition, the model’s assumptions regarding the calculation of oil induced additional mortality and the economic impacts, should be expanded.