Browsing by Subject "weak signals"

Finland is the world's seventh largest producer of softwood timber and the fourth largest exporter. Three-quarters of the approximately 12 million cubic meters of sawn timber produced annually are exported to more than 60 countries. The total annual value of exports in 2021 was approximately EUR 2.8 billion. Finnish sawmills are the backbone of the Finnish economy, but at the same time they are part of a global operating environment whose movements, directly or indirectly, affect product demand and prices, industry profitability, operating conditions, forest raw material prices, Finnish employment, Finland's GDP and society's well-being. This study was conducted as a collective case study. The aim of was to identify global weak signals that could be interpreted to anticipate short-term movements in the global sawn timber market. Also, the aim was to retrospectively identify potential events that have previously triggered or have been a driving force behind market developments and to provide sawmill operators a tool to anticipate these movements, prepare for possible events and support strategic planning. The research question of the thesis was the following: Are there identifiable similar signals or series of events that have had congruent effects on the development of the global sawn timber market in the 21st century? The purpose of the auxiliary research question was to deepen the understanding of the operating environment and the impact mechanisms of change. The auxiliary research question sought to establish whether the effects have been direct or indirect. The methods of future studies and business environment research are used in this research. The key elements in the study are PESTEL framework, scenario method and the future table. The study builds on previous future studies and the use of scenario methods, providing a perspective on a relatively little-studied industry. The study was conducted as an explanatory extensive case study. The research material consisted of industry and customs statistics for selected periods and semi-structured qualitative thematic interviews. Finnish long-term professionals in the export and trade of sawn timber, influencers from the domestic and foreign policy scene in the 21st century, and professionals in the economic and social sciences were selected for interviews. The interview material was themed and a future table describing the industry was built on the basis of it. Three different scenarios utilizing the narrative were formed from the future table. The research question was approached with the help of the PESTEL tool. It was used to map the phenomena shaping the global sawn timber market. Several different factors affecting the market were found. The study also showed that weak signals can be found in the context of the global timber trade. With regard to the auxiliary research question, all the weak signals observed in the research have had indirect effects on the operations of Finnish sawmills in a global context. The study showed that weak signals could be found in the operating environment of the global sawn timber market and that their effects on Finnish companies have been indirect. Since weak signals have occurred in the past, it is entirely expected that they are found now and, in the future, too. In order to succeed in a fast-paced and complex operating environment, it would be advisable for sawmills to build internal processes for a more diverse observation of the operating environment. The results of this study and the future table can be used in companies' strategy work and as a basis for their own scenarios.