Browsing by Author "Ruuskanen, Viivi"

The Housing markets are going through a change. The financial recession and the segregation of housing markets are creating pressure to themes of housing. On the other hand, the ageing of the population is one important factor in housing markets in the future. In Finland, the ageing of the population will reach its highest level at 2020-2030 when the baby boomers are retired. Then one fourth of the Finnish population is over 64 years old. The ageing and lengthening of lifespan are influencing the housing markets for example by reducing household sizes. According to previous studies, the reducing sizes of households leads to rising demand for smaller apartments. In addition, the rising proportion of elderly people is affecting the structure of the housing markets by emphasizing their role. The aim of this study is to examine what kind of impact the population change will have on the housing markets. In addition, this study examines how these changes should be taken into consideration in housing production. The empirical section of the study constructs of the report of housing markets in the city of Oulu and the structure of Oulu's current population. Furthermore, the study concludes regional forecast for the year 2030, and how the ageing people will be spatially distributed in the city region. The research material consists mainly of free data from Statistics Finland, GIS data of Ruututietokanta 2013 and YKR- GIS data of the housing stock of Oulu. The study methods are both quantitative and qualitative and the main methods are graphical analysis and GIS methods. According to this study, in the year 2030 the elderly people are living mainly outside of the city center in suburbanized areas. The proportion of elderly people is also high in the regions of scattered settlement. The ageing and spatial accumulation of elderly people are affecting the future housing markets in many ways. First of all, the majority of elderly households are one person or two people's households. That increases the demand for smaller apartments. Secondly, the elderly households are mainly living in one-family houses where large cleaning areas as well as the problems with two storeys are factors that are pushing elderly people into a move. As per the previous studies elderly people appreciate in housing the quality of the apartment and accessibility of services. Because of this the elderly peoples housing demand focuses on the newish apartment buildings nearby the center and its services. Based on this study between the times period 2030-2035 in the city of Oulu will be released over 2 500 one-family houses when the elderly people are moving towards the center's urban areas. Almost half of these houses will be released in areas of consolidation of municipalities where the housing demand is anyway lower. Due to ageing, the supply of one-family houses will increase and at the same time the housing demand is focusing on the apartment buildings nearby the city center. On the other hand, other age groups and their preferences are affecting the future housing markets. The portion of people in their late 20es and early 30es who are likely to start a family, is decreasing which affects the demand of one-family houses. Because of these structural changes the demand of one-family houses is decreasing while the supply increases. Therefore, we can detect that the ageing of the population is causing a temporal state of imbalance in the housing markets. For the sake of the housing production the changes of population demography should be anticipated in early stages so the needed changes can be made. According to this study the city of Oulu should reduce the production of one-house family plots for the sake that the supply of the one-family houses would not increase too high in future. At the same time the housing production should be concentrated in apartment buildings where the housing demand is focused now and in the future.